New Zealand v British Lions Tour Preview, Betting Tips and Odds
After a thrilling end to the season as Exeter Chiefs beat Wasps in a dramatic Aviva Premiership final, club rugby takes a backseat and international rugby comes to the fore in the most illustrious way possible: the British and Irish Lions, one of the great institutions of the game, tour New Zealand to take on the almighty All Blacks. Leading website Planet Rugby preview the tour with betting tips and odds eclusively for Betsafe.
The Challenge
As history shows, the British and Irish Lions tours of the Southern Hemisphere are as tough a test as possible for players from the home nations. Since their first tour in 1988, the Lions have only triumphed in 15 of their 36 Test series, three of which were against Argentina.
But touring New Zealand is an altogether different beast. Eleven times the Lions have toured to face the All Blacks – only once, in 1971, have they emerged victorious. On their last visit to the most revered rugby union nation of them all, Sir Clive Woodward’s team, consisting of many of England’s World Cup winners, were outclassed and beaten in all three Tests by a cumulative score of 107-40.
In total Warren Gatland’s men will play 10 matches, including fixtures against Super Rugby outfits Blues, Crusaders, Highlanders, Chiefs and Hurricanes, plus the Maori All Blacks in a clash which is being billed as an unofficial fourth Test.
There has been some criticism that the tour is too extensive, but Sir Ian McGeechan has defended the schedule. Having been victorious on a Lions tour as a player and twice as a coach, McGeechan knows what he’s talking about.
“The six-game preparation is so important to collective understanding,” he told BBC Sport.
He added: “There’s the combinations that you need to put together but there’s also that defining element of giving the player the opportunity, and you need all six games.”
Key Players
Tadhg Furlong
Has any player’s stock in world rugby risen quite as dramatically over the past 18 months as Furlong’s? The Leinster tighthead made his Ireland debut less than two years ago, but is already likely to be pencilled in to start the first Test thanks to his destructive displays against New Zealand in the Autumn, standing out thanks to his scrummaging and impact in the loose – especially in Ireland’s 40-29 victory in Chicago, one of only three defeats the All Blacks have suffered since 2013.
McGeechan suggests one area the Lions will target their opponents is in the front row, and there are high hopes that Furlong can be the side’s secret weapon.
He said: “I think the area that we’ll hopefully find them [Test match animals] is in the front row and there’s good indications. I like Tadhg Furlong, I think he’s shown that sort of edge and that involvement under pressure.”
Sam Warburton
Only the second man to captain the Lions on successive tours after Martin Johnson, it seems remarkable that Warburton has something to prove. The flanker captained the side to victory in Australia four years ago, albeit missing the decider due to injury, but has been selected as skipper despite giving up the Wales armband for this year’s Six Nations.
Like the previous tour, he will head to New Zealand having only recently recovered from injury, and will know he needs to be at his best to stave off competition from Justin Tipuric and Sean O’Brien for the number seven shirt. That additional motivation could inspire Warburton to find his best form. The Lions need their captain to go above and beyond.
Taulupe Faletau
Brought in to play the third Test against Australia in 2013 and produced an impressive performance, but Faletau was expected to play second fiddle to Billy Vunipola this summer.
The injury to England’s wrecking ball is a huge blow to the Lions’ chances, and the pressure is now on Faletau to replicate his cousin’s barnstorming carrying.
New Zealand’s pack is fearsome, and Faletau is going to be one of the main weapons to get the visitors over the gainline. If the 26-year-old does not manage it, the side will be on the back foot throughout.
Owen Farrell
Second choice in 2013, Farrell is seemingly assured of a Test place this year, whether that be at fly-half or inside centre. A dominant presence for both Saracens and England, Farrell is now in the world-class bracket of players, and his combative attitude will be much needed against the All Blacks.
Depending on who else is in the team, he may be handed goal-kicking responsibilities and cannot afford to miss any chances to keep the scoreboard ticking over.
Stuart Hogg
Given the selections in the rest of the squad, especially in the midfield, the Lions appear likely to replicate the direct style of rugby Gatland’s Wales team tend to operate, but Hogg is one player who can offer something different as one of the more brilliant flair players in Europe.
England boss Eddie Jones has warned Gatland: “They have picked a certain style of team based on the influence of the Welsh coaches. So I think they are looking to attack like Wales with big, gainline runners with not much ball movement. I think you struggle to beat the All Blacks like that.”
Hogg, who has been named the Six Nations’ Player of the Tournament for the past two years, will be needed to provide the X Factor from full-back.
The Odds
Despite the excitement around the current Lions squad, history shows just how difficult it is for the touring side to be victorious, and the fact remains that this New Zealand outfit is quite possibly the greatest rugby union side of all time. As a result, the All Blacks start as 1/4 favourites to win the Test series outright with Betsafe, with the Lions 7/2 outsiders.
Betsafe have a multitude of markets available throughout the whole tour. Odds on the match result of all the warm-up matches are already available and it’s worth noting that the Lions tend to lose at least once ahead of the Test series.
If any club side is to beat the touring guests the most appealing bet tends to be one of the fixtures either side of the first Test. With the Chiefs the opponents only four days before the opening clash with the All Blacks, the Hamilton-based outfit are possibly worth a punt at 5/2, while the Hurricanes, who the Lions face in between the first two Tests, are available at 8/5.
There is also a market open on the exact number of tour wins the Lions will manage, with anywhere between five (10/3) and seven (3/1) appearing most likely – depending on how you see the Test series going.
Likewise, you can also bet on the exact score of the series. The first Test is always crucial, and if New Zealand claim victory in that then a repeat of the 3-0 whitewash at 10/11 could be dangerously likely. Eddie Jones has predicted that if the Lions win the first Test they will win the series, and a 2-1 triumph is tempting for those brimming with confidence at 6/1.
The Lions have been practicing as a choir as a team-bonding exercise ahead of their trip, and every player will have to be on song if they are to achieve something special.
About Rob Conlon
Rob Conlon is a contributor for PlanetRugby, widely regarded as one of the biggest rugby websites in the world which offers news, previews, live scores and analysis.
