England v Australia Rugby Betting Tips
Another fabulous month of international rugby will draw to a close this weekend as England host Australia at Twickenham. England will be hoping for a record-breaking victory, while Australia will have revenge on their minds after the 3-0 series whitewash they suffered on their own turf in the summer. It has been a season of two halves for the Australians with only three wins from their first 10 Tests of the year however wins over Wales, Scotland and France put them on course for the Grand Slam until they fell just short against the Irish in Dublin last week. For England it has been a phenomenal year under new coach Eddie Jones with a full house of wins in 12 games played and with the final Test of the season against the talented Australians pending, Jones and his team will want to secure a perfect year with victory over the old enemy.
Betsafe, Planet Rugby and former Welsh International Shane Williams pack down for the final Test of the series with expert tips and opinions for the much anticipated and final clash of the Autumn International series.
Form
This England story since the appointment of Eddie Jones is getting a little bit predictable now, isn’t it? They win, and then win again, and then keep winning, so much so that they now have the chance to become the first England side in the professional era to go a whole calendar year unbeaten.
After completing a Six Nations Grand Slam at the start of the year, Jones took his side to his native Australia, where they beat the hosts in all three Tests, and so far this Autumn England have overcome South Africa, Fiji and Argentina, all while slowly evolving the personal of the team.
The victory over Argentina was one of their most impressive yet, with Elliot Daly sent off after only five minutes and Dan Cole and Joe Marler both sent to the sin bin at separate stages. Argentina may have aided the hosts with their own ill-discipline, but the way in which England built a 16-0 lead, withstood a second-half fightback, and then finished the stronger of the two sides to record a 27-14 victory was certainly a statement.
Australia, meanwhile, have had 12 months to forget since reaching the World Cup final. Competing against the all-conquering All Blacks in the Rugby Championship always makes things difficult, although the Wallabies were also beaten by a poor South Africa team, with the series defeat to England a major stain on 2016.
Their Autumn program began with the thrashing of Wales and close wins over Scotland and France, before another disappointing defeat at the hands of an injury-stricken Ireland outfit last weekend.
Key Battles
Dan Cole v Scott Sio
England have traditionally found joy against Australia at the scrum, and will have been heartened by the Wallabies’ struggles against both France and Ireland in that area. However, Cole had his own difficult time against Argentina, and was eventually yellow carded after a number of repeat penalties, before finishing strongly.
Plenty of scrutiny will be on the scrummaging, especially after Jones was typically mischievous in requesting a meeting with referee Jaco Peyper: “We will invite the Australian coaching staff to come along and will submit an agenda and make sure that everything is above board. They were penalised four times in a row against France so they have got some technical issues. I am not going to sort them out for them.”
Tom Wood v Michael Hooper
One of Jones’ first big decisions as England boss was to drop Wood, one of Stuart Lancaster’s most trusted deputies, from the squad entirely. The flanker has been rewarded for his response with a recall this Autumn, and has the chance to complete his redemption against Australia.
Twelve months ago England had been outclassed at the breakdown by both Wales and the Wallabies at the World Cup. Wood’s biggest strength is his work-rate, but with the absence of human wrecking ball Billy Vunipola and the scavenging abilities of Hooper and David Pocock in opposition, he needs to prove that an old dog can indeed learn new tricks.
George Ford v Bernard Foley
Australia may have been erratic at times this year but one player they can rely on to keep his composure is their fly-half. Foley is a classy operator at first receiver and has all the skills and tricks to unlock England’s defence, especially if his forward pack provides quick ball. England will be well aware of the need to shut down Foley to ensure Australia’s powerful and pacey backline does not get a sniff.
Opposite Foley is an equally silky playmaker in Ford. With the goalkicking responsibilities taken away and his best mate Owen Farrell by his side offering another dynamic to England’s midfield, Ford is now flourishing in the side and looks comfortable and confident at international level. The outcome of the match may not be decided by which number 10 produced the most eye-catching piece of play, however, but rather who guides his side around the park the best.
Teams
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Marland Yarde, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Mako Vunipola
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Charlie Ewels, 20 Teimana Harrison, 21 Danny Care, 22 Ben Te’o, 23 Henry Slade
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Sefa Naivalu, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Lopeti Timani, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 David Pocock, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 James Slipper, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Dean Mumm, 20 Sean McMahon, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Quade Cooper, 23 Henry Speight
The Odds
Unsurprisingly, England start as favourites with Betsafe, although it must be a long time since they were as short as 3/11 to beat Australia, which is a testament to Jones’ work as head coach.
When asked whether the victory over Argentina was the toughest in his tenure, Jones replied: “The best win is to come, Australia will be the best win.” Given the two teams’ recent fortunes, it’s hard to argue with his confidence, although those brave enough to do so can back the visitors at 11/4, or a draw at 21/1. It is worth remembering that Australia did emerge as victors the last time they faced England at Twickenham, the crushing 33-13 win which knocked the hosts out of their home World Cup.
The handicap, where Australia have been given a 9.5-point start at 9/10, is much more intriguing. Traditionally this fixture provides plenty of points; you have to go back 11 meetings to find the last encounter which contained less than 30 points. In only three of their last seven wins over Australia have England won by more than 9.5 points, but with the Wallabies beginning to look tired at the end of their grueling season and the hosts in such high confidence, don’t be surprised to see Jones’ men win by a double digit margin, clearing the handicap at 9/10 themselves.
About Rob Conlon
Rob Conlon is a contributor for PlanetRugby, widely regarded as one of the biggest rugby websites in the world which offers news, previews, live scores and analysis.
