6 Nations Preview and Betting Tips Round 5
The title and wooden spoon may have been decided, but there is still plenty to play for in the final weekend of the 2017 Six Nations. England have a Grand Slam and world record in their sights, while Ireland, Scotland, France and Wales are all battling for a top-half finish not to mention places on the coveted Lions trip to New Zealand. Betsafe scrum down with Planet Rugby and former England captain Lewis Moody for one last time in the 2017, 6 Nations with expert tips and opinions.
Scotland v Italy
If Scotland feel battered and bruised after their crushing defeat at Twickenham, they need only look to their opponents on Saturday for a reminder that things could be worse.
It was not long ago that Scotland were scrapping with Italy to avoid the wooden spoon, but they head into this fixture knowing a win will give them a great chance of finishing in the top half of the table for the first time since 2013.
Vern Cotter’s men were thrashed 61-21 by England, but can count themselves extremely unlucky with the amount of injuries they suffered.
Star full-back Stuart Hogg suffered a head knock early on and his replacement, Mark Bennett, lasted only four minutes before having to depart due to a knee injury, meaning scrum-half Ali Price had to operate on the wing for the majority of the contest.
But in what will be Cotter’s final game as head coach, Henry Pyrgos says the Scottish players are determined to give their boss a fitting send off.
“Vern has done a great job and we want to go out and show we’re better than we showed at Twickenham,” Pyrgos said. “The result was not what we wanted to do for Vern. We’re gutted. We’re a lot better than we showed out there. That’s why it’s so hard to take. I don’t think it was the occasion that got to us. A lot of the boys have played in big games before. We just didn’t get our job done well enough and that has cost us.”
Italy, on the other hand, will finish the tournament with yet another wooden spoon and will face further questions about whether they deserve a place in the Six Nations ahead of Georgia after another comprehensive defeat last time out. The Italians collapsed yet again in the second half and were eventually beaten 40-18 by France, undoing all their promising work against England the previous week.
If Italy were to lose at Murrayfield by another big margin, then it is hard to see how the governing body can ignore Georgia any longer. Writing for Sky Sports, Stuart Barnes suggested: “Should they have to play-off against the winners of the second-tier tournament? Of course they should; not because they are Italy but because they are the worst team. If England finish last next season I’ll argue the same point.”
Even with Scotland’s injuries, the hosts start as whopping 1/25 favourites, with Italy big underdogs at 11/1. For the sake of their Six Nations future, the visitors can barely afford to lose on the handicap, on which they have been given a 24-point start at 10/11.
France v Wales
A clash which will probably go on to define both sides’ campaigns. A win for either team will mean they finish in the top half of the table, while both sides will view a bottom-half spot as unacceptable.
France have made steady progress under Guy Noves, but a sixth-consecutive bottom-half finish would certainly cast doubts over his leadership. After victories over Scotland and Italy, a win over a Wales team coming off the back of some momentum is exactly what Noves needs.
Les Bleus showed more encouraging signs in the bonus-point defeat of Italy in Rome, especially in the performances of Gael Fickou and Virimi Vakatawa, while back-row Damien Chouly has returned to the squad after being injured in the win over Scotland.
Wales, meanwhile, returned to the steel they displayed against England in the 22-9 win over Ireland. The players justified Rob Howley’s decision to stick with the same team that was beaten by Scotland, with George North in particular looking more like his old self with two tries.
Rhys Webb laid down a marker in his bid to become the Lions’ starting scrum-half this summer by outplaying Conor Murray, but the livewire now wants to back up that display.
“It’s been an emotional two weeks because in the first three games we felt we were dominant and we only had one result come our way,” Webb told the Wales website. “But we knew as a squad that we were fine margins away from a good performance. We’re not half as bad a team as everyone thinks we are. We’re not going to get too carried away on this victory. We knew from the last two weeks that we needed to play the full 80 minutes.”
Given neither side has shown much consistency in this tournament, home advantage means France start as 4/7 favourites with Betsafe. However, Wales are tempting underdogs at 8/5 having won the last four meetings between the two sides. In what could well be a case of France’s attack versus Wales’ defence, the visitors have been given a four-point start on the handicap at 10/11, which seems like another tempting price.
Ireland v England
A match which was expected to be billed as a championship decider has instead turned into a clash in which all the pressure is on England. Ireland’s disappointing defeat to Wales ended any hopes Joe Schmidt’s men had of winning back the Six Nations title, but the motivation of stopping England from securing a second-consecutive Grand Slam and breaking New Zealand’s record of back-to-back Test victories will ensure the boys in green are certainly fired up.
In truth Ireland have been a little underwhelming in this year’s tournament. Coming off the back of their first ever win over the All Blacks, losses at both Scotland and Wales have been somewhat surprising, especially with a side containing plenty of Lions candidates.
Ireland’s task on Saturday has been made even more difficult after it was confirmed Tommy Bowe suffered a leg fracture in the defeat in the 22-9 defeat at the Millennium Stadium. One piece of positive news, however, is that Conor Murray has been cleared to play after the scrum-half injured his arm at the weekend.
Despite the possibility of finishing in the bottom half of the table for only the third time in 18 years, Schmidt is confident his players will bounce back from their most recent defeat.
“To bounce back from [losing to Wales] is difficult but I know this group of players are incredibly good to work with, are incredibly resilient and they have demonstrated that before,” he said. “They showed it during the game against Australia [in November the week after loss to New Zealand] and they have a fantastic chance this week to demonstrate that from week to week and get something out of the championship.”
England, meanwhile, have crumbled at this stage on many occasions before, but have showed no signs under Eddie Jones of being affected by pressure. Before the Scotland game the talk was that England are vulnerable, and yet the hosts produced their most emphatic performance of the tournament to blow the Auld Enemy away.
Jones now has a few tough decisions to make after Billy Vunipola made a try-scoring return off the bench, while Elliot Daly is a doubt after suffering a head injury. Anthony Watson, who replaced the Wasps man, also caught the eye on his return to the squad with his own five-pointer.
England start as marginal favourites at 2/3 with Betsafe, with Ireland at 4/3. In what is expected to be a tight encounter, Ireland’s two-point start on the handicap at 10/11 could prove crucial.
About Rob Conlon
Rob Conlon is a contributor for PlanetRugby, widely regarded as one of the biggest rugby websites in the world which offers news, previews, live scores and analysis.
