6 Nations Betting Tips 2017 – Round 3
The 6 Nations returns for some more hard hitting action with five teams having managed to secure a win from their opening two matches, the first time this has happened in four years, giving the tournament a very open flavour to it. Ahead of third round action Betsafe scrums down with leading authority Planet Rugby and former England captain Lewis Moody with their expert opinions and tips to help you secure the bonus point this weekend in the 6 Nations
Scotland v Wales
There are a lot of reasons to be positive about rugby in Scotland at the minute. Domestically, Glasgow Warriors have caught the eye with their exuberant performances in the Champions Cup, while the national team are finally starting to secure the results to match the impressive strides they have made under Vern Cotter. However, injuries are now threatening to disrupt what promised to be an encouraging Six Nations campaign.
After a narrow victory over Argentina in the Autumn was followed up by an equally tough win over Ireland in the opening round, Scotland were considered dark horses for the title in some quarters, but the task at hand has got an awful lot tougher with the losses of captain Greig Laidlaw and number eight Josh Strauss for the rest of the campaign.
The duo were injured during the clash with France in Paris and their absences were sorely missed as the Scots were eventually ground down by the French pack and fell to a 22-16 loss.
“I think we chucked it away at the end,” admitted star full-back Stuart Hogg. “Our errors cost us throughout the game. We got ourselves in a good position after the first try, but we didn’t look after the ball, we didn’t respect it enough and ultimately that cost us. It wasn’t the result we were looking for.
Our next job now is Wales in a couple of weeks and we have to get ourselves back on the horse.”
Wales, on the other hand, were also downed in a narrow defeat – but arguably came out of their loss to England with more positives than negatives. After suffering somewhat of an identity crisis in the Autumn with Rob Howley in charge while Warren Gatland focuses on the Lions tour, Wales were back to their ferocious best at the Millennium Stadium, only losing at the death after England punished Jonathan Davies’ sloppy kick with a sensational piece of attacking play.
Whereas Scotland are hamstrung by an increasingly lengthy injury list, Wales could welcome back Taulupe Faletau to the starting XV – although Ross Moriarty shone in the previous round – while George North may also feature.
The clash is almost too close to call with both sides priced at 10/11 with Betsafe. Scotland have been given a slight advantage on the handicap with a 1.5point start at 4/5, or Wales can be backed at evens to overcome the deficit.
Teams
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 John Hardie, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Gordon Reid
Replacements: 16 Ross Ford, 17 Allan Dell, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Hamish Watson, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Mark Bennett
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Jamie Roberts
Ireland v France
Ireland may have lost their opening match to Scotland, but their ruthless dismantling of Italy was a reminder that this is a side who beat the All Blacks only three months ago. Facing a France side which has rediscovered its joie de vivre, Ireland will know this is a crucial test if they hope to set up a championship showdown with England on the final weekend.
The current signs are positive for boss Joe Schmidt. Josh Van Der Flier may have been ruled out, but talismanic fly-half Johnny Sexton and stalwart full-back Rob Kearney have returned to full training as Ireland look to avenge the 10-9 defeat in Paris last year. Number eight Jamie Heaslip, meanwhile, is under no illusions about the size of the test which faces him and his team-mates.
“No matter what French side I’ve played against, they’ve always been troublesome,” he said. “When we played them last year I think there was only one point in the game. They’re a very good side with a big physical pack with some really good guys freshening it up and the backline is potent; there’s dangers and an ability to strike from anywhere.”
France are beginning to resemble something of their old self under Guy Noves. The unpredictability and flair of their backline is there for all to see in wingers Noa Seru Nakaitaci and Virimi Vakatawa, while the pack showed the destructive capabilities which have been missing in recent years, powering the side to the 22-16 win over Scotland.
Flanker Loann Goujon misses the trip to Dublin due to injury and could be ruled out for the rest of the tournament, while Camille Chat, Eddy Ben Arous, Bernard le Roux and Paul Jedrasiak have been added to the squad.
Given Ireland are unbeaten at the Aviva Stadium over the last three Six Nations campaigns under Schmidt, the hosts start as favourites at 1/3 with Betsafe. France, who always make dangerous underdogs, can be backed at 5/2. The handicap is also a difficult call, with the visitors given a 6.5point head start at evens, while Ireland are available at 4/5. Of the last nine encounters between the two sides, only once has the winning margin been bigger than a converted try.
Teams
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c), 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath
Replacements: 16 Niall Scannell, 17 Cian Healy, 18 John Ryan, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Paddy Jackson, 23 Andrew Trimble
France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Noa Nakaitaci, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Baptiste Serin, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kévin Gourdon, 6 Bernard le Roux, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Christopher Tolofua, 17 Uini Atonio, 18 Xavier Chiocci, 19 Julian Le Devedec, 20 Charles Ollivon, 21 Maxime Machenaud, 22 Henry Chavancy, 23 Djibril Camara
England v Italy
One of the themes of this year’s tournament is that reigning champions and Grand Slam winners England are vulnerable and there for the taking. And yet a quick glance at the table will show they are the only team with two wins from two, while their record under Eddie Jones has extended to 15 matches and 15 victories.
Against both France and Wales, Jones’ men appeared perilously close to tasting defeat for the first time since the 2015 World Cup but only grew stronger as the games went on, showing nerves of steel and an attacking verve to score late tries and secure victories. Jones conceded England were “awful” against France and admitted his team had used their final “get out of jail card” at the Millennium Stadium, but their defensive resilience and thrilling play for Elliot Daly’s late wonder try bore all the hallmarks of a champion team.
Given they have struggled for fluency, England are not expected to make wholesale changes against Italy. It has been suggested Daly could switch from wing to outside centre, while Mako Vunipola and Anthony Watson are back fit and in contention to return. The increase in competition has been welcomed by Jonny May, one of the revolving cast of wingers to have appeared under Jones.
“It’s tough, you honestly don’t know who’s going to play,” he told The Guardian. “But we want to be the best team in the world and it’s only going to make us better players, competing with one another to get in that team. Eddie can choose who he wants to win certain games.”
Italy, meanwhile, started their campaign with a promising first half against Wales only to ultimately collapse, and were completely shambolic against Ireland. In their last 120 minutes of rugby, the Italians have conceded a staggering 93 points.
So poor was their performance in the 63-10 defeat to Ireland in Rome, that serious questions are once more being asked of their place in the competition – especially with Georgia currently three places above them in the world rankings.
Such is the disparity between the two sides, that Italy start at 40/1 to win off scratch with Betsafe for what would arguably be the biggest upset in the history of the Six Nations. England start with a -40.5point deficit on the handicap. It’s a big ask, but they certainly have the ability to eclipse that total.
Teams
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jonny May, 13 Ben Te’o, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 James Haskell, 6 Maro Itoje, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Mako Vunipola, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Tom Wood, 20 Jack Clifford, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 Henry Slade, 23 Jack Nowell
Italy: 15 Edoardo Padovani, 14 Giulio Bisegni, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Luke McLean, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Abraham Steyn, 5 Andries Van Schalkwyk, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti
Replacements: 16 Ornel Gega, 17 Michele Rizzo, 18 Pietro Ceccarelli, 19 George Biagi, 20 Maxime Mata Mbanda’, 21 Giorgio Bronzini, 22 Carlo Canna, 23 Tommaso Benvenuti
About Rob Conlon
Rob Conlon is a contributor for PlanetRugby, widely regarded as one of the biggest rugby websites in the world which offers news, previews, live scores and analysis.
