PGA Championship preview, Betting Tips and Odds

There was a time when this, the year’s final major championship, was billed as “Glory’s Last Shot”. The PGA Tour didn’t like that idea very much so requested it be dropped. In truth it was always a bit of a desperate attempt to attach importance to the major-which-doesn’t-matter-nearly-as-much-as-all-the-other-ones-do.

Some would argue that it continues to have clout – indeed some did so during a heated discussion in a restaurant during last month’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale – but the hard fact is that the first three majors are instantly and recognisably unique.

The Masters has the same-every-year test and inspiration of Augusta National. The U.S. Open calls for patience, grinding and resolve. The Open demands a links skill set and refusal to be thrown by whatever conditions the golfer faces. The PGA isn’t really a lot different to a normal PGA Tour week.

This year, ironically, it might fit a major pattern. Erin Hills was markedly unlike recent U.S. Open examinations – and yet this year’s PGA host Quail Hollow might be.

We also have two key narratives to observe this week: Can Jordan Spieth complete the career Grand Slam? And can Rory McIlroy awake the lion within?

Spieth would become the youngest-ever winner of all four major championships should he do so – and after his audacious claiming of the Claret Jug a few weeks ago, it seems entirely possible he could do it.

If McIlroy fails to win he will have gone three seasons without adding to his major tally of four. A double winner of the tournament and two-time course winner, he could hardly ask for a better location to avoid that fate.

PGA Championship Bet Now

The Course: Quail Hollow GC

The North Carolina course has been an ever-present on the PGA Tour since 2003 (having previously been used from 1969 to 1979) and is one of the most popular tracks on the circuit. It also has a quiet reputation for dropping hints about potential major champions. Lucas Glover, Trevor Immelman, Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Bubba Watson and Webb Simpson were all top-five finishers there prior to winning their majors.

However, things have changed since it hosted the Wells Fargo Championship last year. The bent grass greens have been replaced by a new (and reputedly pure) Bermuda grass, thousands of trees have been removed, and there have been some significant holes changes. The first and second have combined to become one hole, the new second is a par-3, the fifth changes par from 5 to 4, and the 11th has extensive sand trap alterations. Reports suggest the course will run quicker than in the past and the rough will be thicker.

PGA Championship 2016

Jimmy Walker took an early lead with a first-round 65, but was caught on Friday by Robert Streb. By the end of a disrupted third round, Streb had fallen away, Walker led alone on 11-under, chased by defending champion Jason Day (one back) with Brooks Koepka and Henrik Stenson a further stroke back. Walker headed to the final tee with a three-shot lead which was immediately eaten into by Day, who made eagle up ahead. Walker trusted himself to make an up-and-down to clinch the title by one shot – and was justified doing so.

PGA Championship 2017 Winners Profile

There was a time when this event stood out only because journeymen had a habit of pinching it. It was a slightly unfair perception, highlighted when Rich Beem won in 2002 and Shaun Micheel in 2003. Walker’s success might suggest a return to those ways, but only by a very harsh judge.

Seven of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in the tournament in their log book. Seven were also in the world’s top 25. Eight had already won that season. All 10 were younger than 40. An intriguing additional trend? Eight had finished top four on a major championship course in the States that year (either in majors or in regular tour starts played on major courses). That trend fits the biggest shock of the last 10 years – Y.E. Yang’s victory in 2009 (he had won at PGA National).

PGA Championship Favourites 2017

Jordan Spieth

Wonderful through three rounds at Royal Birkdale, floundering after 13 holes of the final lap, utterly magnificent over the last five and now lining up the career Grand Slam. Missed his first two cuts in this tournament, then second at Whistling Straits and T13 last year at Baltusrol. Only played Quail Hollow once in the past, when T32 four years ago and, with the changes, that might conceivably be an advantage. T13th last week at Firestone.

Spieth 9/1 Bet Now

Rory McIlroy

In 2011 the Northern Irishman missed the cut at Quail Hollow. The reason that matters? Because it is a massive exception in his stunning record at the course. In his other six visits he has never once finished outside the top 10 and was a winner on debut in 2010 and then again in 2015. He’s got a new caddie on the bag and simmering form (T4th in the Open, T5th last week) so this looks like a strong opportunity for him to return to the winner’s circle and claim a third PGA Championship.

McIlroy 7/1 Bet Now

Dustin Johnson

After a dreadful mid-summer which saw him miss the cut at the U.S. Open and finish outside the top 50 in The Open, Johnson made a first top 10 since early May at the Canadian Open prior to ending the week T17th when defending his WGC Bridgestone Invitational title. He has four top 10s in the PGA Championship, but the biggest worry for him is the venue. In three visits for the Wells Fargo Championship he has twice missed the cut and has a best of T29th. Worse yet, he has poor Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation stats.

Johnson 13/1 Bet Now

Hideki Matsuyama

Much touted as a possible major winner this season, he has been stymied by an inability to maintain any sort of consistency. In fact he’s been wildly up-and-down. At The Masters: 76-70-74-67. In the U.S. Open: 74-65-71-66. Then The Open: 69-73-67-73. Half of those rounds were brilliant, the other half were terrible. Can he shave two shots per round off the bad rounds? It would be enough. Despite that volatility, he has finished T14th or better in all three of those majors this year. Better news? His form at Quail Hollow is progressive: T38th-T20th-T11th. Blasted a course-record 61 to win the WGC Bridgestone Invitational last week.

Matsuyama 14/1 bet Now

Jon Rahm

It’s been quite a 12-month period for the 22-year-old but in recent weeks mild controversy has plagued him, with two rulings going his way when they could quite easily have gone against him. Unless he has another soon, it’s likely that will fade and he can concentrate on the golf. In one sense this might be his best chance of major success: the others often require experience, this one much less so. It’s also possible to argue that with the significant changes to Quail Hollow, his lack of prior knowledge won’t be affected. A good week can be expected.

Rickie Fowler

Poor Rickie. He has contended in all three majors this year, just never when it matters (at the end of Sunday). He was spent after a fine opening nine in The Open, faded after a first-round 65 at the U.S. Open, and limped through the weekend at The Masters after a second-round 67. The really good news, however, is that he has a superb record at Quail Hollow, including victory in 2012 and another two top-six finishes. The quest for a major is beginning to wear thin, but could he have a better venue to end the hoodoo? Ninth last week.

Fowler 18/1 Bet Now