Manny Pacquiao v Jeff Horn preview, betting tips and odds
The “Fighting Pride of the Philippines” Manny Pacquiao, steps back into the ring for the 68th time in his professional career when he defends his WBO welterweight title against Australian Jeff Horn at the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane this weekend. The 38-year old eight-division world champion remains as determined as ever to prove he is the man to beat in a box office welterweight division, with victory almost certainly setting up a unification clash with IBF champ Errol Spence or WBA, WBC title holder Keith Thurman. Boxing News’ John Dennen steps into the ring with Betsafe to deliver his verdict, preview and betting tips for the big fight Down Under.
Background
Manny Pacquiao is coming to Australia. The Filipino is a legend in the sport, he’s fought a who’s who of the best boxers of his era. Now, after ending a brief period of retirement last year, Pacquiao has commenced a world tour. The first stop is Brisbane, the Suncorp stadium, which is expected to be filled with 50,000 fans and is a major event in Australian boxing. So stepping up to take on still one of the best welterweights currently and a boxer for so long one of the best pound-for-pound in the sport, is little known Australian Jeff Horn, a man truly stepping out of the shadows to tackle one of the sternest challenges he could imagine.
Pacquiao’s legacy
Manny Pacquiao is one of the few top level boxers operating today who is already assured of greatness. ‘Pacman’ might have succumbed to his arch-rival Floyd Mayweather, losing a clear, straight-forward unanimous decision when the two boxed in 2015. But he won’t be remembered for that sole fight.
Over his career Pacquiao has blazed his way through the weights. He has had a long, four-fight rivalry with the brilliant Juan Manuel Marquez. He’s beaten Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales, legends in their own right.
When he jumped up to welter he began a glorious, devastating run. He savaged Oscar De La Hoya in the ‘Golden Boy’s’ last fight. He knocked Ricky Hatton cold with a chilling finish and overwhelmed Miguel Cotto. Even his wins over top level operator Tim Bradley shouldn’t be forgotten or underrated. It’s hard to see what Pacquiao has left to prove.
Who is Jeff Horn?
Manny Pacquiao’s challenger, Jeff Horn isn’t going to enhance the Filipino’s reputation. The Australian has amassed a 16-0-1 (11) record in his professional career. Compare that to Manny’s 59-6-2 (38) record. Those numbers alone suggest the disparity between the two, then factor in how Pacquiao has fought the very best opposition available. Horn has done nothing close to that. He went to the London 2012 Olympic Games, the Oceania qualification group was less demanding than some and while he did not have a tremendous impact on the tournament he did reach the quarter-finals, losing to top Ukrainian Deny Berinchyk.
As a professional his signature wins have been halting Randall Bailey (42 years old) and Ali Funeka (39 years old). Neither of whom have boxed since.
In other words so far in his track record there has been nothing to suggest Horn has the talent or the experience to defeat a fighter of Manny Pacquiao’s status.
The Fight
Where the fight is significant is the scale of the event in Australia, the spectacle itself. Pacquiao hasn’t fought in a stadium fight since he outpointed Antonio Margarito at the Cowboys Stadium in Texas in 2010. For the first time in years Pacquiao will also not be fighting in a pay-per-view event. This bout will be broadcast in America on ESPN (BoxNation will broadcast in the UK), a new deal struck by his promoter Top Rank. That is an intriguing development and could see Pacquiao enjoy a huge audience in the USA, potentially setting him up for bigger fights later on this year. Manny will want to demonstrate that he remains a major draw.
But his best years are behind him. He is not the same fighter who blitzed Miguel Cotto. In fact he hasn’t won by stoppage since he battered Cotto in 2009. Perhaps he has become ‘too nice.’ However that seems unlikely for a top level fighter, even though Pacquiao is a religious man. He has been juggling his boxing with a political career. Now Manny has become a senator the burden of those political duties has become increasingly onerous. Horn will be hoping Manny’s age is catching up with him, that the wear-and-tear of his long career is taking a toll and that his political career has had a negative impact on his boxing training.
But that remains a long shot. There hasn’t yet been conclusive evidence that Manny is too old, too distracted or too underprepared. He announced a brief retirement after his latest victory over Tim Bradley but came back within the year to beat Jessie Vargas and win the WBO welterweight world title.
He was sprightly then, he hit sharply and with power. But he didn’t come close to knocking out Vargas. The American however is a tough, gritty competitor, who has been competing a much higher level than Horn. He is more seasoned than the Australian.
Even with Pacquiao’s decline, Manny is descending from a tremendous peak and is more than likely to be a step too far for optimistic Australian Horn. Pacquiao might not be the whirlwind of doom that blitzed Cotto, De La Hoya and Hatton but he has the ring savvy of an expert and his punches are swifter and heavier than Horn’s and anyone Jeff has faced.
Pacquiao is the clear favourite and could overwhelm Horn to score his first inside the distance victory since 2009. This fight will be a gauge of where Pacquiao is now, how he is managing to blend his boxing with his commitments outside the sport and whether he is ready to take on more demanding opposition later this year.
Undercard highlights
Look out for fantastic Irishman Michael Conlan, going into his third professional fight against Jarrett Owen. Conlan memorably made a spectacular, controversial exit from the Rio Olympics, lambasting the judges, the amateur sport and more after the decision went against him in his quarter-final.
That garnered headlines but Conlan had won a bronze medal at London 2012 and in 2015 became the first Irishman to win World championship gold. He can do it all, boxing off the backfoot but prefers to go forward, an entertaining, dangerous puncher on the front foot. He’s won his first two pro contests well enough and will make a statement on this bill, a tremendous platform for him.
Light-heavy Damien Hooper, who was in fact the star of Jeff Horn’s Australian amateur team, will also feature on the undercard, boxing 19-0 Umar Salamov.
About John Dennen
John Dennen is a respected sports writer for Boxing News, the oldest boxing publication in the world. Established in 1909, Boxing News’ reputation as the market authority comes from over 100 years of experience in the hardest game.
