Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Preview

13:30pm – JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is the first race on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, run over two miles and a furlong for four-year-old juveniles. This is always an intriguing race with so many unexposed juveniles, with Pentland Hills being a fairytale winner for his large group of owners last season.

Donald McCain Verdict

Obviously I’ll be hoping that my only Festival runner this year, Navajo Pass can give me a winner. This has been the plan for a very long time and although I’d have liked to have gotten another run into him, he has been for a racecourse gallop and comes here in great form. It looks like a very hot race but he’s a nice horse that I hope runs into the frame and maybe better.

Betsafe Verdict

Solo is top-rated in here by five-pounds following his very impressive Grade 2 victory at Kempton but I’m not sure how good that race will work out and he’s too short in the market for me.

Allmankind has shown the standout for this season in my opinion and has hardly seen a rival in this three winning starts over timber. He looked very good when winning at Chepstow over Christmas and is the one to beat on form. Another horse that tends to race up with the pace is Goshen but I think he’s got some kinks and might be found out n this much hotter company.

Betsafe ambassador Donald Mccain runs Navajo Pass who as mentioned has been trained towards this race all season. He could improve the likely faster pace and course, so represents good each-way value.

Best of the Irish-trained runners is Aspire Tower for the in-form Henry De Bromhead team. He won a Grade 2 over Christmas in fine style and held every chance when coming to grief at the last in a Grade 1 at the Dublin racing festival.

Selection: Navajo Pass – E/W 

• 20 of the last 23 winners won the last time out before the festival.
•  Only 3 of the last 12 favourites have won, 8/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting
•  Just two of the last eighteen winners were rated lower than 80 on the flat.
•  The last sixteen winners to have run on the flat had all been tested at one mile and four furlongs on the flat.
•  Just 2 Irish winners have won in the last 15 years.
•  5 of the last 7 runnings have been won by French imports.
•  20 of the last 24 winners had their last prep run in the month of February.
•  21 of the last 26 winners had run at least three times over hurdles.
•  Nine of the last twelve winners didn’t make their debut over hurdles until at least November.
•  Nicky Henderson and Alan King both have a good recent record in the race.
•  The Adonis Hurdle, Prestbury Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle and Finesse Hurdle are all good guides.

Key Trial

Trial races can often prove to be a good guide when picking the winner of a race like the Triumph and Aspire Tower even though he fell at the last in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown I think he would have found another gear and won and looks the best of the Irish contingent. A Wave Of The Sea picked up the pieces that day but surely doesn’t have the pace to win at the festival.

2.10pm Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Distance: 2m 179y

Donald McCain Verdict

I have a horse or two for John Turner who owns Buildmeupbuttercup. She was unlucky the last day at Leopardstown when short of room and I think there could be more to come from her.

Betsafe Verdict

The JP McManus owned Ciel De Neige finished third in the Fred Winter on its first start on British soil last season. The Willie Mullins trained 5-year old has had just the three starts in the current campaign and look the winner everywhere bar the line in the Betfair hurdle only to be nailed late on by Pic D’Ohry. That represents very good form and with just three-pounds more carry, he’s the one to beat.

Mohaayed gave Bridget Andrews and the Skelton team a red-letter day when winning this race 2 years ago. He hasn’t quite hit the same heights since then but there’s no doubt this race would have been on the radar for some time and given that he’s just three-pounds higher than that victory and has had a recent wind-op there could be more to come from this likeable gelding.

I always think that there is great value in following Sam Waley Cohen as everybody seems to underestimate him just because his father owns many of the horses but he’s got a fine record and I think he can bag a festival winner here with Elusive Belle. The Nicky Henderson trained mare was a bitter disappointment in the mares novice at the festival last season but ran very well behind the now champion hurdle winning Epatante earlier in the season and with the likely strong pace upfront she could settle better and come home best.

Selection: Elusive Belle

• Since 1998, a five-year-old has won this race on ten occasions.
• Superb Story in 2016 is the only single-figure priced winner for 12 years, with 7 of the last 12 winners being 20-1 or bigger.
• 6 of the last 13 winners were trained by the Mullins family (Willie x 4, Tom x 1 and Tony x 1).
• 15 of the last 17 winners were either a novice or a second-season hurdler, with class acts Arctic Fire (2017) and Ch’tibello (2019) the only exceptions.
• 12 of the last 19 winners were running at the Festival for the first time.

2.50pm Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Distance: 2m 7f 213y

Donald McCain Verdict

I’ll have to go with Latest Exhibition for Paul Nolan. He’s been a model of consistency all season and looked very impressive when winning a Grade 1 the last day.

Betsafe Verdict

Thyme Hill looks like the standout runner on form in this race he was a classy bumper sort last season highlighted by a third-place finish in the champion bumper at the festival behind Envoi Allen and given how Gordon Elliott horse won the Ballymore, he must automatically enter calculations. He looked very good winning all three starts over hurdles does far including winning the cello over Christmas and will be hard to beat.

Latest Exhibition has been the main horse behind Paul Nolan’s resurgence this season he looks very good when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival where he beat cobblers way and looks like the type of horse that will run well in this race.

David Pipe’s Ramses De Teillee has looked like a different horse since having a wind surgery in November. the front running grey has won a brace of Grade 2’s over this trip and should relish this underfoot conditions. He may lack the class of the other principles but one thing is for sure he’ll be battling all the way up the hill.

Selection: Thyme Hill

• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
• 5/12 winners won on their previous run before Cheltenham.
• 6/12 winners had a previous run at Cheltenham.
• 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles with 9/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles.
• 9/12 winners were rated 139 or higher
• 9 of the previous 12 winners had at least 1 win in a Grade 1-3 race

3.30pm Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1)

Distance 3m 2f 70y

Donald McCain Verdict

I have always liked Presenting Percy and thought he was particularly good when he won his RSA Chase. Obviously he didn’t run up to expectations in the Gold Cup last season but he’s had a better prep this season and could be good each-way value.

Betsafe Verdict

Now we come to racings blue riband event the Gold Cup and this year’s renewals looks like a very open one. The logical starting point here is last year’s winner Al Boum Photo who has had the exact same prep this time around by winning the Savills chase at Tramore and coming straight here. As a rule previous Gold Cup winners don’t back It up the following season but from what we’ve seen there is no reason to say that he won’t.

Santini silenced some of the critics when winning the Cotswold Chase here in January and has always been a high-class sort and with Nicky Henderson string in such fine form this week he must have a big chance. That being said I’m not convinced he’s a thorough stayer and although he’ll travel well to the last I think he’ll be found wanting coming up the hill.

Presenting Percy is a dual Cheltenham Festival winner and was actually sent off favourite for this race last year where he never looked comfortable. He’s run well all season but in truth looks held by Delta Work on there two running at Leopardstown. That being said Pat Kelly always seems to bring about more improvement from the son of Sir Percy and if Davy can hold onto him long enough he could come home with one big rattle.

Paul Nicholls has been very bullish about Clan Des Obeaux this season and reports that the gelding is a far superior horse that when finishing fifth in the race last season. In what’s been a light campaign he put Cyrname to the sword In the King George over Christmas and must be a player.

Selection: Presenting Percy – E/W

• 11 of last 12 winners were aged between 7-9.
• 4 of last 12 SP favourites have won.
• 10 of last 12 winners won on their previous run before Cheltenham,
• 3/12 winners ran in the King George VI Chase (Kempton) on their last run.
• 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run.
• 3/12 winners ran in the Denman Chase (Newbury) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won

4.10pm St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase

Distance: 3m 2f 70y

Donald McCain Verdict

I mulled over this race for a while trying to pick the winner and in truth, I struggled. The angle I’ve gone for is a good handicapper reverting back to hunter chases in Top Wood. He’s been placed in this race twice before and has shown strong form in open company of late including when running behind Lord Du Mesnil in the Tommy Whittle. That’s good form and he’ll do for me.

Betsafe Verdict

Hazel Hill will probably jump off favourite for this race but I can’t see why giving he was beaten by Minella Rocco at Wetherby last time out. He did win this race back in 2019 but I don’t think Minella Rocco’s form is up to much and that run would have to go down as disappointing. It is interesting that Derek has decided to ride Minella Rocco but again I think there are too many question marks over him and I’ll be looking elsewhere

The nine-year-old Staker Wallace is incredibly only having his fifth start under rules today and I know that Enda Bolger has always thought a lot of him. He’s got some strong form in the book and returned from over a 1000 days off the racecourse to finish just 8 lengths behind leading fancy Billaway and followed this up with a smooth victory and a point to point. There is much more to come from the lightly-raced gelding and he’s my idea of the winner.

Selection: Staker Wallace

• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or older
• 7/12 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham.
• 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham.
• 10/12 winners had at least 6 previous chase runs with 11/12 winners having had at least 1 previous chase win
• 9 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 134 or higher
• Female Jockeys have won 4 of the last 5 runnings of the race.

There are no firm trial races for this race which often sees former high-class sorts trying their hand in the Hunter chase discipline. Former Gold Cup placed Minella Rocco has won both starts in the current campaign and beat last season’s winner Hazel Hill most recently. These two will renew rivalry at Cheltenham and I wouldn’t like to call the winner.

Historically Ireland has a strong record in the race with Salsify and On The Fringe both dual winners of the race. Enda Bolger looks to have another live contender in the shape of Stand Up And Fight and Staker Wallace who have both shown high levels of form this season.

Another possible Irish-raider is Billaway who represents Willie Mullins and he ran away with a strong looking Naas Hunter Chase last month. Willie has taken it slowly with this son of Well Chosen and he’s open to further progression.

4.50pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Donald McCain Verdict

I was the underbidder on Chosen Mate when he went through the sales and I regret not putting my hand up again as he’s turned into a very decent sort. He was a Grade 2 winning novice and that class should see him feature here.

Betsafe Verdict

The Henry De Bromhead trained Paloma Blue has some good form of the festival finishing fourth in the 2018 Supreme and then 6th in last year’s Arkle. He’s run well on all three starts this season and was an unlucky loser last time out with a mark of 150 looking on the lenient side.

A Gordon Elliott runner with a big chance is Chosen Mate who won well last time out and has the assistance of Davy Russell in the saddle. He was a Grade 2 winning hurdler and looks like good each-way value.

Us And Them had some high-class novice form last season including when finishing second in the Arkle. He’s run dismally this season in handicaps but because of that he now looks very fairly treated and this race could possibly have been the plan for some time.

Selection: Chosen Mate – E/W

• 14 of the last 16 winners carriesd less than eleven stone, with Savello in 2014 and Next Sensation in 2015 bucking the trend.
• 9 of the last 15 winners were officially rated between 129-134.
• Only 8 of the last 45 winners of the race finished unplaced in their last run before the festival.
• 8 of the last 14 winners were previous course winners.
• Novices have won 13 of the last 34 runnings.
• No winner has been rated over 145 since 1992.
• Only one winner in the last 16 renewals was aged over nine.
• Only one winner since 1990 has been off the course for more than 45 days.

5.30pm Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (0-145)

Distance: 2m 4f 56y

Donald McCain Verdict

I think Jonjo riding Front View for Joseph O’Brien really catches the eye. They teamed up to win the race last year and given his form behind Envoi Allen, they can do it again.

Betsafe Verdict

The Martin Pipe brings the festival to a close and it’s not an easy race to try and get out of jail. That being said I think it will pay to stick to the four of the market in this race with the Gavin Cromwell trained Ilikedwayurthinkin being my selection. He went into lots of notebooks when running on well at Leopardstown over Christmas and showed a lot of ability when winning twice at the Galway festival during the summer.

Another JP owned horse that will be high on many people’s lists is Front View who will be ridden by the very capable Jonjo O’Neill. Here and very well to finish runner-up behind Envoi Allen at Down Royal at the beginning of the season and wasn’t beaten far in a Grade 3 at Thurles when last seen. This is high-class form and he must enter calculations.

Pileon looks like the best of the English runners here and has the very promising Ben Jones in the saddle. He ran well to finish fourth behind Chantry House back here in December and has since gone on to win 2 novice hurdles in fine style and this mark may just underestimate his chances.

Selection: Ilikedwayurthinkin

• 10 of the last 11 winners have been aged 5 or 6
• 5 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham.
• 6/11 winners had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run, 1 of the 6 had a previous Cheltenham win
• 11/11 winners had a rating of 133 or higher
• 9/11 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season.

Again we have no confirmed runners for the final race of the Cheltenham festival but it pays to follow Irish runners with the travelling contingent winning 6 of the 11 runnings of the race. 

Willie Mullins has been responsible for three of these winners and his most likely candidates at this time include Ciel De Neige who was just touched off at Newbury and the versatile Buildmeupbuttercup. The current ante-post favourite is Ilikedwayurthinkin who caught any people’s eye at Leopardstown over Christmas and looks to have been laid out for the arce. Best of the home contingent could possibly be Champagne Well from the Fergal O’Brien stable but time will tell.