Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Preview

It’s Day One of the Cheltenham Festival and we’ve previewed every race, giving you our thoughts and those of leading Jumps trainer Donald McCain.

Alongside this see the big trends to see what it takes to win at the Cheltenham Festival!

1.30pm Supreme Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

2m 87y £125,000 prize money

The curtain-raiser of the Festival is the Grade 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle. The beginning of the two-mile Grade 1 contest always generates a huge following and from here one can experience the famous Cheltenham Roar!

Many of the past winners have gone on to achieve future success at Cheltenham. The likes of Altior, Douvan and Vautour have won the Supreme in recent years before winning races such as the Racing Post Arkle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Ryanair Chase at the festival in following seasons. 

Donald McCain’s Verdict

It’s Asterion Forlonge for me. I have just been really impressed by him of late and particularly the last day, so I think he’ll be very hard to beat.

Betsafe Verdict

Owner Joe Donnelly has a very strong hand in the race with the favourite Shishkin and second-favourite Asterion Forlonge. Shishkin has always held a big reputation but shot to the top of the market for this following an easy victory at Huntingdon in February. He’s undoubtedly got a lot of ability but I think he’s vulnerable. The unbeaten Asterion Forlonge has surprised the Willie Mullins team as he’s not the best workhorse but he does it where it matters and was a very impressive winner of a Grade 1 at the Dublin racing festival. I think he’ll beat Shiskin and that could be could enough to win.

Abacadabras is one of the most consistent novices’ in training, with his only defeat over hurdles coming behind Envoi Allen and there is no shame in that. I think it’ll be hard to keep him out of the places but may come up just short.

At a bigger price, it might be worth having a small each-way interest on Berkshire Royal, who’s having his first run over hurdles. At the Betsafe preview night, David Casey spoke well of him and could be the surprise package.

Selection: Berkshire Royal – E/W

• The last 10 winners were all aged 5 or 6
• The last 10 winners had all run 4 or 5 times over hurdles
• Last 6 winners had all won at least a Grade 3 novice hurdle
• Out of the last 16 winners only Altior and Captain Cee Bee were previously unbeaten over hurdles
• Out of the last 22 winners only three were beaten on their previous run
• Willie Mullins trained horses have won this race 5 times – going back to Tourist Attraction in 1995
• 10 out of 12 winners had at least previous win a Grade 1 -3 race (2008 -2019)
• 10 of the last 12 winners won their last run before the Festival (2008 -2019)
• 5 out of 12 winners have had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham while 2 out of 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham (2008 -2019)
• Ruby Walsh won the 2019 Supreme Novice Hurdle on board Klassical Dream at what turned out to be his final Cheltenham Festival

2.10pm Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

1m 7f 199y £175,000 prize money

The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase is the second Grade 1 on day one of the Festival. Here are some interesting facts about the one-mile seven furlong challenge! It is interesting to note that this race makes up a key contender for the Queen Mother Champion Chase the following year.

In terms of trials prior to the running of the Arkle, the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December is the main trial in Britain. Several Grade 2’s – the November Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton and the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick – are frequently used as trials for the Racing Post sponsored contest. In Ireland, the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival is a popular Grade 1 option prior to Cheltenham.

Donald McCain Verdict

I’m a huge fan of Fakir D’oudairies, he’s tough, hardy and is just a proper racehorse.

Betsafe Verdict

The one to beat on form is Notebook who’s much-improved since going chasing this season. He’s already won a brace of Grade 1’s this season but I think Fakir D’oudairies can turn around the form with him on their Racing Post running over Christmas. I think his jumping will come to the fore here and he can steal a march on his rivals.

The forgotten horse in the race for me is Put The Kettle On who won the Arkle Trial over course and distance back in November when beating Al Dancer and with her being in receipt of the seven-pounds mares allowance then she looks each-way value.

Selection: Fakir D’oudairies

• Out of the last nine winners won the last time out
• Since 1990, Moscow Flyer 2002 and Sizing Europe 2010 are the only 2 winners 8 years or older
• 6 of the last 7 seven favourites have won, including Altior among the last 4
• 17 of the last 19 winners were BHA rated 142 over hurdles
• Of the past 29 winners, eight have gone on to win the following season’s Champion Chase including the likes of Sprinter Scare, Sizing Europe, Moscow Flyer and Remittance Man
• List Willie Mullins has won four of the past five renewals
• The most successful jockeys have been Barry Geraghty and Ruby Walsh – both with four wins
• Six of the past eight winners have returned as the odds-on favourite
• 13 of the last 15 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham

2.50pm Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

3m 1f 1f £110,000

The Ultima Handicap Chase is a fiercely competitive handicap chase, which is run over 3 miles and a furlong.

The Ultima does not have the strongest series of obvious trials compared to other handicaps. However, form in the staying handicap chases, such as the 3 miles and 3 furlongs handicap at Cheltenham’s November meeting and the Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly the Hennessy) at Newbury, is often noteworthy. Bearing that in mind it might be worth siding with The Conditional who finished runner-up in the Ladbrokes Trophy and must have a big chance.

Donald McCain Verdict

I’ve gone for Who Dares Wins here and for no other reason than he was a real good flat horse, a good hurdler and I’d like to see him win.

Betsafe Verdict

Top-weight Vinndication looks set to go off as favourite for this and looks to have been laid out for the race having not run since November. He’s got some top novice form at 2m4f and stayed on well when winning a 3m handicap at Ascot. He’s open to plenty of improvement and looks the one to beat.

Discorama has a good record at the Festival having finished runner-up for the past two seasons. He just lost out behind Le Breuil in the National Hunt Chase much to my frustration. Paul Nolan’s charge races of the same mark now and although he’s been below form this season, a recent wind-op and the addition of a tongue strap could spark a resurgence.

Colin Tizzard’s Mister Malarky finished fourth in the RSA Chase last season and bounced back to form at Kempton last season. He’s got a carer high mark to contend with now but should run well.

Selection: Discorama

• 10 of the last 12 runnings have been won either by novices (4) or second season chasers (6)
• Apart from Coo Star Sivola, the last 7 winners wore either cheekpieces or blinkers
• All winners this century had previously raced over three miles-plus
• 10 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 11 times over fences
• None of the last 9 winners were aged over 9 years of age
• Paul Nicholls has trained 23 runners in this but is yet to have a winner in it

3.30pm Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

2m 87y £450,000

The feature race of the day, it is the highlight of the Festival for many race goers – the Champion Hurdle. It is one of the most prestigious National Hunt hurdle races. Open to horses 4 years and older it is run over the distance of 2 miles and half a furlong. With a welcoming prize fund of £370,000 it marks the final leg of the Road To Cheltenham which includes the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, International Hurdle and Champion Hurdle trial. At the 2019 Festival the feature was won by 16/1 shot Espoir D’Allen for Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell.

Donald McCain Verdict

Epatane is the only conceivable improving horse in the race and given how well she jumped in the Christmas Hurdle, she must go close. In a race like this you are looking for the horse that can keep improving and for she’s the only one that can.

Betsafe Verdict

This looks like one of the weakest renewals of the Champion Hurdle in many’s a year. The current favourite is the highly progressive Epatante who looked particularly good at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle but she didn’t perform when all the rage at the festival last season and I’m willing to take her on.

Last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills has been disappointing this season where he’s travelled well but hasn’t got home and with the soft ground and Cheltenham Hill, all to contend with I think he’ll weaken at the back of the last.

Another horse that was well spoken about at the Betsafe Cheltenham preview night was Couer Sublime. Davy Russell said that nothing can work with him at Gordon’s at they can’t work out how he’s ever got beaten on the track. He’s had a recent wind-op which may bring about improvement and he could hit the frame.

Selection: Couer Sublime – E/W

• 10 of the last 12 winners have already won a Grade hurdle
• 12 of the last 13 had raced no more than 12 times over hurdles
• Since 1984 only 6 winners were unplaced in any previous run that season
• Nicky Henderson has won this seven times from a total of 42 runners
• Only four horses over the age of eight have won since 1951, the most recent being Hurricane Fly aged nine, in 2013
• 12 of the past 15 winners were aged between six and eight

4.10pm David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (Grade 1)

2m 3f 200y £120,000

The mares hurdle tends to provide the drama, as we think back to 2015 and Annie Power falling at the last, while only last year at the 2019 Festival Benie Des Dieux who also fell at the last.

In terms of trial races prior to the mares hurdle, the listed OLBG Mares Hurdle at Warwick in February is an important jet trial in the UK while Quevega is noted to be a key pointer in the race this year after her impressive win at Punchestown in February. Superstars such as Apple’s Jade and Limini, who were first and third in the 2017 Mares’ Hurdle, used the Punchestown race as a trial before Cheltenham.

Donald McCain Verdict

I’ll have to go with Benie De Dieux in this. Obviously Willie thinks the world of her and that’ll do for me.

Betsafe Verdict

This race looks like a straight match between previous winner Benie Des Dieux and the hugely exciting Honeysuckle. The Willie Mullins trained Benie Des Dieux would be chasing a hat-trick of victories in the race if not falling at the last when in control last season and looked better than ever when winning the Galmoy Hurdle. After that victory, Willie said she could be the best mares he’s ever trained which is high praise indeed.

Irish champion hurdle winner Honeysuckle is now 3-3 over hurdles two of them coming in Grade 1 company. She’s yet to taste defeat but this will be her biggest test to date.

There are any number of mares one could pick to fill the frame with last year’s winner Roksana no doubt high on many people’s list but I’ll plum for Stormy Ireland who’s won all three starts this season and ran well in the race last year.

Selection: Benie Des Dieux

• This race is dominated by Willie Mullins – Quevega won six in a row between 2009 and 2014
• All the last 11 winners came from the front three in the market
• Some 31 of the 33 winners and placed horses had already won over at least 2 miles and 4 furlongs
• Henry de Bromhead has never had a runner in this race before. His stable star Honeysuckle heads to the 2020 Festival this year
• Only Apple’s Jade has won both the Hatton’s Grace and Mare’s Hurdle in the same season
• 9 of the past 12 winners had won on their previous start
• 9 of the past 12 winners were rated 150 or higher

4.50pm Northern Trust Company Novices’ handicap chase (listed)

An ultra-competitive novice’s handicap chase, which has been won by some smart types. The race was introduced to the card in 2005.

This race is run over a distance of 2 miles and 5 furlongs and is open to horses of age 5 years and older with a rating of 0 -140, as they compete for a prize fund of £55,000. In 2019 Rachael Blackmore steered home the favourite A PlusTard for Henry De Bromhead. 

Donald McCain Verdict

I like Mick Channon’s horse, Hold The Note in this race. He ran very well at Warwick the last day and looks like one the big improvers in the race.

Betsafe Verdict

I think it’ll pay to stick with the more fancied runners in this and Imperial Aura who’ll start as favourite could be difficult to beat. Kim Bailey’s charge finished runner-up behind Simply The Betts back in January and that form looks very strong now.

The other talking horse for this race of late has been the lightly-raced Hold The Note from the Mick Channon yard. He got a 13-pound rise from the handicapper for his runner-up placing at Warwick in January and even though I can see the logic for fancying him, I’m not convinced the drop in trip will suit and he needs to improve to win.

Galvin is yet to win over fences but has some sort hurdles from to his name and I can guarantee this race has been the plan for some time. On form, he’s got loads to find but given that Gordon trains him, that’s more than possible.

Selection: Imperial Aura

• Only five of the last 15 winners had their last race in a handicap. And that five came from the last eight. Not A Plus Tard, Tully East nor Ballyalton. Two of the five were top weights
• Both Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have yet to train a winner in this race
• The trainer of 5 of the last 8 winners were enjoying their first ever Festival success
• Only one of the last 9 winners were aged older than 7
• There have been 2 winners and 7 others placed in headgear for the first time
• Apart from amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen in 2013, all winning jockeys of the race have been non-claiming professionals

5.30pm National Hunt Chase (Grade 2)

3m 7f 147y £125,000

Run over 3 miles and 7 and a half furlongs, this Grade 2 race rounds up day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival. It is the only race on the day that is solely for amateur riders. It is a real test of stamina and requires a thorough stayer to win it.

The National Hunt Chase is open to novice chasers aged 5 years and older. Irish man Jonjo O’Neill is the name many associate with this race as the legendary trainer has claimed 5 winners which makes him the most successful trainer of this historic race since it was established in 1860.

Donald McCain Verdict

This race more than others it pays to follow the top jockey. I spoke to Derek recently who rides Forza Milan and I know he’s looking forward to the ride, so he’ll do for me.

Betsafe Verdict

Carefully Selected has been all the large for this race in the ante post markets and I can see why given that he finished runner-up in the 2018 Champion Bumper and has won all three starts over hurdles this season. He needs to jump better than he did at Naas but is the one to beat.

The booking of Derek O’Connor on Forza Milan is very noteworthy and although he finished behind Carefully Selected at Naas he wasn’t beaten far and at the current odds, James Nash’s charge looks like good each-way value.

The best of the English horses looks like Springfield Fox for the Tom George team. He should relish the trip and forecasted soft underfoot conditions, so could just surprise a few people in here.

Selection: Forza Milan – E/W

• Since 1946 no jockey has won this race 3 times. However Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd and Patrick Mullins have each won the race twice. Their 6 wins have come on the last 9 renewals
• 4 of the 9 winners had the highest official BHA rating
• 7 of those 9 winners had each run in a chase by October 31st
• Grand National hero Tiger Roll won this race in 2017 at 16/1
• Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are both yet to train a winner
• Irish trainers Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have trained 5 of the last 8 winners