#13 Wolverhampton: Unlikely to Reach the Top Half
For a short time last season it looked like Wolverhampton Wanderers were Champions League contenders. A fantastic first half of the campaign had them sitting in sixth place in November, and when they headed to the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal towards the end of February, a win would have seen Bruno Lage’s side climb into fifth place. Just three points adrift of Manchester United in fourth.
As it was, Wolves lost that match despite taking the lead and ended the season pretty poorly. Indeed, from that game in north London until matchday 38, only Southampton, Norwich City and Watford collected fewer points than Wolves – and two of those sides were relegated. They may not be the worst Premier League team during that period, but Wolves no longer looked like an outfit capable of finishing in the top six. Defeat by Liverpool on the final day left them in 10th, narrowly behind Leicester City and Brighton & Hove Albion.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Had they been offered 10th last summer, most Wolves fans would have accepted it. It was Lage’s first season at the club following the exit of Nuno Espirito Santo, whose final season saw Wolves drop into the bottom half. It was always likely to be a transition year, and European qualification would have been a bonus more than anything.
The task for Wolves now is to ensure last season’s decline does not seep into the 2022/23 campaign. There has only been ono incoming at the time of writing (not including Hwang Hee-chan, who was on loan at Molineux last season), leaving the squad looking thinner than it will need to be if Wolves are to finish in the top half once more. There is also a sense that this side needs freshening up, with its key components having now been together for several years. Wolves will struggle to get close to the European spots as things stand.
Predicted XI (3-4-3)
Josa Sa; Nathan Collins, Conor Coady, Max Kilman; Nelson Semedo, Ruben Neves, Joao Moutinho, Rayan Ait-Nouri; Pedro Neto, Raul Jimenez, Daniel Podence.
The coach
Following a manager like Nuno was not necessarily an easy task, even if Lage made it look that way. His fellow Portuguese was the man who had taken Wolves back into the Premier League and established them there. His philosophy ran right through the club, with a three-at-the-back system and a focus on keeping things tight at the back. Lage was appointed to make Wolves a more attractive, expansive team, but it would have been foolish for him to dismantle all of his predecessor’s work.
Lage got the balance right. He retained many of the aspects that had been behind Wolves’ success under Nuno but encouraged his players to put their foot on the ball a bit more. His team showed more attacking intent early on, although the goals dried up as the campaign wore on. That is something Lage needs to address this time around.
The 46-year-old had very little frontline managerial experience before he assumed control at Molineux. He had spent most of his coaching career up to that point as an assistant or working with young players. His only prior senior spell was at Benfica, where he was sacked after a terrible finish to the 2019/20 season. Lage restored his reputation at Wolves last term. Now he must try and take them forward.
Player to watch
Following a serious knee injury in April 2021, last season was always going to be about rehabilitation for Pedro Neto. The winger returned to action in February and made 13 Premier League appearances before the campaign was out, but Neto’s priority during that time was simply to feel his way back into action. Most of his outings came off the bench, with Lage determined to avoid rushing him back too quickly.
In 2022/23 we could see Neto remind everyone of his talent. The Portuguese is still only 22 years of age. He caught the eye in the season of his injury, scoring five goals and providing six assists for a side that was not exactly free-flowing in attack.
Quick, tricky and always looking to make something happen, Neto was linked with a transfer to Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Juventus back then. If he can get back to his best, Wolves have a serious player on their hands.
Transfers
In
Nathan Collins (Burnley), Hwang Hee-chan (RB Leipzig)
Out
Marcal (Botafogo), Romain Saiss (Besiktas), Ruben Vinagre (Sporting CP), John Ruddy (Released), Ki-Jana Hoever (PSV, loan), Fabio Silva (Anderlecht, loan)
Our Premier League score card
Goalkeeper: 8/10
Jose Sa was one of the division’s standout performers last term. Wolves had a terrific defensive record: of all 20 Premier League teams, only Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham conceded fewer goals than Lage’s side. Much of that was down to Sa, who was very difficult to beat between the posts.
There is an advanced statistic we can use to measure goalkeeping performance. If you take post-shot expected goals, which assesses how likely a goalkeeper is to save any given shot, and minus actual goals conceded, Sa had a positive value of 9.2. That suggests he prevented nine whole goals that he would have been expected to let in over the course of the season – by far the best record in the Premier League.
Sa is also good with his feet and has no problem coming off his line to close down shooting angles or claim crosses. Wolves will hope it was not a one-off brilliant season but the start of a sustained spell of excellence.
Defence: 7/10
As mentioned above, Wolves’ defensive record was – on the face of it – excellent last season. But if we dig a little deeper, that statement seems more questionable. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes. Wolves’ xGA (expected goals against) was 60.3, the fifth-worst record in the division. This suggests they were very fortunate to concede so few goals, since their opponents were consistently able to create high-quality chances against them.
Romain Saiss started 31 games last season but has now left for Besiktas, with Nathan Collins signed as his replacement. Conor Coady is a reliable presence at the heart of the three-man backline, and Max Kilman exceeded expectations with his assured displays in 2021/22.
Midfield: 7/10
The evergreen Joao Moutinho is still going strong at 35 years old. A classy player with a fine passing range and excellent vision, the Portugal international is one of the first names on Lage’s team sheet when fit. He recently signed a new one-year deal to keep him at Molineux until 2023, but this could be his last season as a Wolves player.
Moutinho’s age means he will struggle to play every week, so Leander Dendoncker will get plenty of minutes in the engine room. The Belgian is a tidy player but is not at Moutinho’s level, so there will be a drop-off in quality whenever the Portuguese is rested.
Ruben Neves has been linked with a move away from the Black Country, but for now the deep-lying playmaker remains at Wolves. An excellent passer over long distance, Lage has publicly called on Neves to add more physicality to his game defensively.
At right wing-back, Nelson Semedo is an erratic performer capable of both the sublime and the ridiculous – often within the same game. Rayan Ait-Nouri is a promising player on the left.
Attack: 7/10
Raul Jimenez suffered a horrific head injury in November 2020 that kept him out for nine months. He missed only four matches last term, but it was not the Mexican’s best season: he scored just six goals and did not trouble opposition centre-backs as much as he once did. That dip in form could be unrelated to the fractured skull, but it would not be a surprise if such a traumatic event had had an adverse effect on the centre-forward.
Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence are exciting wide men with an eye for goal, and Wolves will need both players to chip in this season. Yet despite the individual quality within it, it is hard to rate Wolves’ attack too highly given they scored just 38 times last season, with the three relegated clubs the only teams who made the net bulge less often.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Bench: 5/10
Wolves will no doubt be looking to flesh out their squad before the transfer window closes in September, because right now there is nowhere near enough depth to challenge for a top-half finish. The departure of Marcal and Romain Saiss leave Wolves short of cover at the back despite Nathan Collins’ arrival, a particular concern given Lage’s preference for a three-man defence.
Leander Dendoncker is the sole senior back-up to Neves and Moutinho in the centre of the park, while Jonny Otto is the only substitute wing-back (he can at least play on both the left and the right). Up front, Fabio Silva is yet to convince and Hwang Hee-chan struggled for goals and assists after a promising start to last season.
Final score: 34/50
Wolves tailed off dramatically last season, and while other clubs have strengthened their squads this summer, Lage’s side are struggling to get business done. That could change between now and the end of the transfer window, but doubts over Wolves’ ability to score goals and a lack of squad depth in key areas means a bottom-half finish beckons.
