#17 Southampton: Survival Would be a Success
After a 2-0 triumph over Norwich City in late February, a top-half finish was within reach for Southampton. That victory kept them in ninth place, and although European qualification was never realistic given the points gap, the Saints looked set to steer well clear of the relegation battle. It speaks to the extent of their late collapse that many of the club’s fans spent the final weeks of the campaign looking nervously over their shoulder at the bottom three.
In the end Southampton avoided the drop zone by five points, but it was much closer than it ever should have been. From the start of March until the end of the season, Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side collected just five points from a possible 36. They were not far off being the worst Premier League team over that 12-game period: the Saints were spared that title only because a dismal Watford team accumulated one point fewer.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Southampton will hope that their end-of-season struggles will not bleed into 2022/23, but that is not a guarantee. Indeed, as things stand it is hard to envisage Hasenhuttl’s side finishing much higher than 15th, as they did last term.
Southampton appear to be focused on signing young players with resale value and the potential to improve. That is an astute move, particularly as this is a club which enjoyed its best period of success in recent years while employing such a model. In the short term, though, the Saints will have to make do with mere survival as their principal objective.
Predicted XI (3-5-2)
Gavin Bazuna; Jan Bednarek, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Mohammed Salisu; Kyle Walker-Peters, James Ward-Prowse, Oriol Romeu, Joe Aribo, Romain Perraud; Che Adams, Stuart Armstrong.
The coach
Ralph Hasenhuttl is in the unwelcome position of being the favourite to be the next Premier League manager to lose his job. That is not necessarily a reflection of his coaching ability, but it is increasingly hard to shake the feeling that Hasenhuttl’s time at St Mary’s is coming towards an end. The club sacked several key members of his staff at the end of last season in a bid to shake things up. If Southampton were to start the campaign badly, it would be Hasenhuttl’s head on the chopping block this time.
When the Austrian took charge on the south coast in December 2018, his first task was to steer the club clear of relegation trouble. He succeeded in that goal and it was then expected that the Saints would kick on and reclaim their status as regular challengers for the European spots. Instead, they have finished 11th, 15th and 15th in Hasenhuttl’s three full seasons at the helm.
Southampton’s failure to compete in the top half is not down to Hasenhuttl, who has been forced to sell some of his best players every season. Yet some fans nonetheless believe the time has come for a new voice in the dressing room. More than most of his peers, Hasenhuttl needs his team to hit the ground running in early 2022/23.
Player to watch
Mohammed Salisu was one of the Premier League’s standout defensive performers last season, especially if you look beyond the division’s big six clubs. The Ghanaian’s displays at the heart of the backline serve as proof that Southampton’s recruitment department, while not as reliable as it once was, has not lost its ability to unearth gems.
Plucked from Real Valladolid in the summer of 2020, Salisu had to remain patient for minutes in his first season in the Premier League. He made 12 appearances in total but found himself behind Jannik Vestergaard and Jan Bednarek in the pecking order, while injuries kept him on the treatment table for longer than he would have liked. But the departure of Vestergaard opened up a spot at centre-back that Salisu gratefully claimed.
The 23-year-old is a solid, aggressive defender who can thrive in either a deep block or a high line. He snaps into tackles and is strong in the air, which helps Southampton to defend set-pieces. He is fast too, and often surprises opposition forwards who do not expect to cover the ground so quickly. Southampton’s overall defensive record was poor last season, but it would have been much worse without Salisu.
Transfers
In
Gavin Bazunu (Manchester City), Mateusz Lis (Altay), Armel Bella-Kotchap (Bochum), Sekou Mara (Bordeaux), Joe Aribo (Rangers), Romeo Lavia (Manchester City)
Out
Fraser Forster (Released), Shane Long (Released), Will Smallbone (Stoke City, loan)
Our Premier League score card
Goalkeeper: 6/10
Fraser Forster and Alex McCarthy shared goalkeeping duties last season, but the former has now departed and Gavin Bazunu will challenge McCarthy for the No.1 jersey. The Irishman is rated highly and has already made 10 appearances for his country despite being only 20 years old. He was always going to struggle to break into Manchester City’s first team, but he has the potential to become an established Premier League shot-stopper one day.
Bazunu is still unproven at the highest level, however. His only two senior seasons of football in England have come on loan at Rochdale and Portsmouth in League One. Hasenhuttl might be reluctant to throw him in at the deep end straight away, but the Southampton boss has never been completely convinced by McCarthy. This could be another campaign in which Hasenhuttl rotates between the posts.
Defence: 7/10
Hasenhuttl has been using a back three for much of pre-season, with new boy Armel Bella-Kotchap joining Jan Bednarek and Mohammed Salisu in the defence. Southampton have high hopes for the Bella-Kotchap, who had previously been linked with Manchester United.
Mohammed Salisu and Jan Bednarek are solid operators, so there is reason to believe the Saints can become more defensively sound this term. The reason we cannot rate them higher in this category is their record last time out, when Southampton shipped 67 goals. A repeat would potentially land them in relegation trouble.
Midfield: 7/10
James Ward-Prowse is Southampton’s talisman and reigning Player of the Year. The club captain is arguably the best free-kick taker in Premier League history. He scored four last season, falling just short of the all-time record set by David Beckham and Laurent Robert, who each scored five in a single campaign.
Ward-Prowse is a set-piece specialist but he has become more than that. The Southampton academy graduate has improved his range of passing in recent years, and he remains a tenacious, tough-tackling midfielder who is not afraid to get stuck in. He will be the first name on Hasenhuttl’s team sheet again this term.
Ward-Prowse has an excellent understanding with his long-time partner Oriol Romeu. The Spaniard is not as good on the ball as his fellow midfielder, but he provides bite and aggression in the centre of the park. Joe Aribo is a terrific prospect who shone for Rangers last term.
Attack: 5/10
Armando Broja was one of Southampton’s bright spots last season, but he has returned to Chelsea after his loan deal expired. That is a blow. Broja was not exactly prolific last term and his form did oscillate at times, but he provided a touch of quality in attacking areas. Hasenhuttl would no doubt love to bring him back to St Mary’s, but other clubs are also interested.
Stuart Armstrong has been deployed in a more advanced role in pre-season, but the fact that a midfielder could get the nod ahead of Adam Armstrong and Sekou Mara up front shows that Southampton have problems in this area. Mara has promise but, at 20 years of age, is unlikely to start regularly in 2022/23.
Bench: 6/10
Throughout his tenure Hasenhuttl has shown a willingness to use young players and promote young players. He may need to do more of the same this season. Southampton’s squad is not particularly deep and injuries in one or two key areas could leave them short of options.
Hasenhuttl has some decent cover in midfielder, where Romeo Lavia could ultimately usurp Oriol Romeu in the holding role. Ibrahima Diallo is another alternative option in the engine room.
However, Hasenhuttl does not seem to have much faith in Adam Armstrong, while the new 3-5-2 formation does not particularly suit wide men like Moussa Djenepo, Theo Walcott or Nathan Redmond.
Final score: 31/50
It is not too long ago that Southampton were regularly challenging for the European spots, but their ambitions will be a lot more modest this season. Ralph Hasenhuttl could come under pressure if his side make a poor start to the season, but Southampton should have enough quality to keep their heads above water in the Premier League.
