#10 Newcastle: Europe Might Be Just out of Reach
It did not end with a long-awaited trophy or European qualification, but last season was one of the most significant in the modern history of Newcastle United. After a tumultuous tenure which lasted for 15 years, Mike Ashley’s unpopular ownership of the club came to an end in October. That in itself was cause for celebration, but many Newcastle fans were even more delighted that the incoming proprietors are wealthier than any of their counterparts in world football.
The takeover by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has been controversial from the start. Newcastle are not the first club to be bought by a state, but the practice nevertheless sits uncomfortably.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
In a footballing sense, the Saudis’ money had an instant impact. After the first match of their ownership, a 3-2 defeat by Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle were second-bottom of the Premier League. A January spending spree of close to €100m saw the likes of Kieran Trippier, Chris Wood, Dan Burn, Matt Targett and Bruno Guimaraes move to St James’ Park. None of Newcastle’s relegation rivals could compete with that level of mid-season investment.
Yet their subsequent surge up the table was not all down to money. Eddie Howe did a magnificent job after a testing bedding-in period. In 2022, only Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham picked up more points than the Magpies. Newcastle ended the campaign in 11th place, closer in terms of points to the Europa League than demotion.
Qualifying for continental competition will be the aim this time around. The recent launch of the Europa Conference League is perfectly timed for a club like Newcastle. They will have greater ambitions than Europe’s tertiary competition within the next five years, but the Magpies would no doubt be contenders to win the 2023/24 edition of the Conference League, should they qualify.
Predicted XI (4-3-3)
Nick Pope; Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Matt Targett; Joelinton, Jonjo Shelvey, Bruno Guimaraes; Miguel Almiron, Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin.
The coach
After leaving Bournemouth in August 2020 following their relegation to the Championship, Howe spent more than a year out of work. He came close to taking charge of Celtic last summer, but negotiations broke down at the eleventh hour and the Scottish giants turned elsewhere. Howe had previously made it clear that he was in no rush to return to management after departing the Vitality Stadium.
“If I decide to get back in, if I am lucky enough to get given an opportunity, I will do that. But for me, I do not want to get back in just for the sake of it, it would have to be something that really motivated me,” he told Sky Sports.
Howe clearly determined that the opportunity at Newcastle was too good to pass up. It is not hard to see why. Whereas Mike Ashley was chronically unambitious, the Saudis want to take Newcastle to another level. Howe proved last term that he was the right man to begin that process, but his team will need to keep taking strides forward if he is to remain in the St James’ Park hot seat.
Before he assumed control in the northeast, the main concern over Howe was his ability to coach a defence. His Bournemouth team were notoriously leaky at the back, and that ultimately led to their demise as a top-flight team. But Howe was able to strike a much better balance between attack and defence last season. Indeed, after the turn of the year Newcastle ranked fifth out of all Premier League teams for the fewest goals conceded. That bodes well for the 2022/23 campaign.
Player to watch
Few players in Premier League history have undergone such a sudden and complete transformation as Joelinton did last term. Formerly a €44m striker who seldom scored, the Brazilian became an all-action midfielder who immediately looked at home in the engine room. Howe deserves great credit for making the switch, as does the player himself for continuing to work hard despite a tough start to his Newcastle career.
Joelinton was rewarded for his excellent season with the club’s Player of the Year prize. He will be looking to continue in the same vein this term, providing drive, industry and tenacity in the centre of the park. The expensive flop has become one of the first names on the Newcastle team sheet.
Transfers
In
Nick Pope (Burnley), Matt Targett (Aston Villa), Sven Botman (Lille)
Out
Isaac Hayden (Norwich City, loan), Freddie Woodman (Preston), Dwight Gayle (Stoke City), Jeff Hendrick (Reading, loan), Ciaran Clark (Sheffield United, loan)
Our Premier League score card
Goalkeeper: 7/10
Nick Pope looks set to take over as Newcastle’s No.1 following his summer switch from Burnley. The England international was a key reason why the Clarets were able to stay in the Premier League for so long. Three or four times a season, he would produce an outstanding goalkeeping display to keep opponents at bay. A superb shot-stopper, he possesses razor-sharp reflexes and also dominates his penalty area by regularly claiming crosses.
The reason we do not rate him higher is because of a shortcoming that did not really matter at Burnley, but could be an issue at Newcastle. Pope’s distribution is relatively poor. He is a not a natural with the ball at his feet. This did not matter at Turf Moor, because Burnley rarely played out from the back. But with Howe preferring a more possession-based style, Pope could experience some difficulties adapting.
Defence: 8/10
As mentioned earlier, Newcastle’s defence exceeded expectations last season. Crystal Palace were the only non-top-four side to ship fewer goals from January 1 onwards. Such solidity came despite a string of injuries which left Kieran Trippier on the sidelines for most of his first half-season at the club, and forced Howe to use several different players as Dan Burn’s centre-back partner.
Burn was consistently terrific following his January move from Brighton & Hove Albion, providing an array of qualities as a left-sided centre-back. Sven Botman is a brilliant signing from Lille and should form a strong partnership with Burn. Trippier, meanwhile, is good enough to play for virtually any team in the country, while Matt Targett is an underrated left-back.
Midfield: 7/10
It will be fascinating to see whether Joelinton can take his game to another level this season. The Brazilian was a revelation after being pulled deeper by Howe, and his bustling, box-to-box style complements the more cerebral Bruno Guimaraes. The former Lyon man can play as a No.10, a No.8 or a No.6, but like Joelinton he prefers a role in which he can contribute to both attack and defence.
If Newcastle decide to use Guimaraes that way, they will need to sign a natural holding midfielder. Isaac Hayden, a somewhat limited player, has been loaned out to Norwich City, while Sean Longstaff is probably not quite good enough to start week in, week out for a team with European aspirations. Jonjo Shelvey, while talented, lacks the discipline to play a screening role in front of the back four.
Attack: 7/10
On his day, Allan Saint-Maximin is one of the most thrilling footballers in the division. His speed and trickery can leave any opposing full-back with twisted blood, but the Frenchman’s end product remains frustrating – Saint-Maximin is never likely to trouble the Premier League top scorers list. He is still an asset for Newcastle, but is not a player who they can rely upon to get into double figures for goals.
The same can be said for Miguel Almiron. The Paraguayan’s work ethic cannot be faulted and his left foot adds depth to the Newcastle attack, but a return of nine goals in 110 Premier League outings is poor for a wide forward.
Callum Wilson is the man who knits everything together up top. He is well suited to the role of a lone frontman, but a history of injury problems means he is unlikely to play every game this season. Chris Wood has his uses, but Newcastle must be tempted to sign a superior back-up.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Bench: 7/10
Newcastle are no doubt planning to add more new faces to their squad before the transfer window closes in September, but at the time of writing their strength in depth is better in some areas than others. Martin Dubravka is an able deputy between the sticks, and Fabian Schar and Jamaal Lascelles provide decent cover for the first-choice central defenders (although the latter needs to cut out the individual errors that have become too commonplace in the last couple of years).
Jonjo Shelvey, Joe Willock and Ryan Fraser are good squad options, but Newcastle fans will want to see more options in attack. Wood is probably better suited to being the third-choice striker than second to Wilson, so another option up top would not go amiss.
Final score: 36/50
Newcastle have done some impressive transfer business once again, and their performances in the second half of last season have restored optimism to St James’ Park. The Magpies should be involved in the European battle this time around, but they may fall just short of teams who have been in and around the top seven for the last two or three years.
