#18 Leeds: Back Where They Belong
Promotion back to the Premier League in 2020 was a long time coming for Leeds United. One of the biggest clubs in England, the three-time champions had spent 16 years outside the top flight. In three of those, Leeds participated in the third tier alongside teams like Hartlepool United, Yeovil Town and Leyton Orient. Being one of the 20 Premier League teams again made the Whites feel like they were back where they belonged.
Leeds outperformed expectations in their first campaign back, securing a ninth-place finish while playing thrilling, attack-minded football. But things almost went badly wrong last term. Marcelo Bielsa was not able to work his magic to the same extent as he had done previously. A thin squad, previously seen as an advantage, became a shortcoming as injuries hit. A defensive man-marking system was ruthlessly dismantled by teams who had learnt from Leeds’ first season back in the Premier League.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
The most important thing is that the Whites avoided the drop. But the early signs suggest Jesse Marsch’s side – the American replaced Bielsa at the end of February – could be involved in another basement battle. Their two best players, Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips, are on the way out.
Leeds have already secured replacements for their outgoing stars, but whether Marc Roca and Tyler Adams will be able to hit the ground running remains to be seen. As things stand, Leeds supporters would probably settle for another 17th-place finish.
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1)
Islan Meslier; Rasmus Kristensen, Diego Llorente, Liam Cooper, Junior Firpo; Marc Roca, Tyler Adams; Jack Harrison, Rodrigo Moreno, Brenden Aaronson; Patrick Bamford.
The coach
Jesse Marsch fulfilled his remit of keeping Leeds in the Premier League last season. He inherited a doubly difficult situation: not only were the team low on confidence and out of form, he was also replacing a manager who remained hugely popular with the fan base until the very end. Indeed, a substantial percentage of the Elland Road faithful were against the decision to sack Marcelo Bielsa despite the dramatic downturn in results.
When Marsch took charge, Leeds were 16th. They ended the campaign in 17th and only secured their top-flight status with a victory over Brentford on the final day. Even then, Leeds relied on Newcastle United doing them a favour against Burnley. Had the Clarets triumphed at Turf Moor on matchday 38, the Whites would be in the Championship right now.
Even so, it is not true that Leeds went backwards under Marsch. They were in freefall towards the end of Bielsa’s reign, and the American oversaw some crucial victories over Norwich City, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford. Whether he is the man to now take this team forward is another question entirely. Marsch did well at Red Bull Salzburg but flopped at RB Leipzig last term. Leeds fans will hope he fares better in Yorkshire than he did in Saxony.
Player to watch
Jack Harrison has been overshadowed by the likes of Raphinha, Kalvin Phillips and even Patrick Bamford in the last two seasons, but the former Manchester City forward has been one of Leeds’ best players over that period. He chipped in with eight goals last season, putting him second only to Raphinha in the club’s list of top scorers. Fast, direct and able to play on either flank, Harrison will be a key figure for Leeds again this term.
Transfers
In
Marc Roca (Bayern Munich), Brenden Aaronson (Red Bull Salzburg), Rasmus Kristensen (Red Bull Salzburg), Sonny Perkins (West Ham United), Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig), Luis Sinisterra (Feyenoord).
Out
Kalvin Phillips (Manchester City)
Our Premier League score card
Goalkeeper: 7/10
Leeds conceded more goals than any other team in the Premier League last season. That was in large part down to Bielsa’s flawed man-marking system, which is easy to take advantage of in the modern game. However, individual players must take a share of the blame too, and the data shows that Islan Meslier should not escape censure.
By taking post-shot expected goals, which assesses how likely a goalkeeper is to save any given shot, and subtracting goals conceded, we can get a measure of how well each shot-stopper performed. At the top of the list last season was Jose Sa of Wolverhampton Wanderers. At the bottom was Meslier.
Still only 22, the Frenchman has plenty of time to iron out the deficiencies in his game. He is good with his feet and has sharp reflexes, while his performances in 2020/21 were largely excellent. With a zonal-marking defence in front of him, Meslier will strive to return to his best this season.
Defence: 5/10
Bielsa inherited a mid-table Championship squad and, with only a few additions, secured a top-half finish in the Premier League. The Argentine did a fantastic job at Elland Road, but the time has surely come for Leeds to upgrade some of the stalwarts of his tenure.
Liam Cooper, the club captain, is one such player. The Scotland international is committed and dependable, but if Leeds want to take the next step they could probably do better. None of Diego Llorente, Pascal Struijk or Robin Koch have yet stayed fit and performed well over a consistent period.
At left-back Junior Firpo is much better going forward than he is defensively, which could be a concern. Leeds will need Rasmus Kristensen, their new right-back, to adapt to the Premier League quickly.
Midfield: 6/10
Kalvin Phillips was always likely to leave Leeds this season. A regular starter for England, the ‘Yorkshire Pirlo’ has earned rave reviews for his performances at the base of his boyhood club’s midfield since promotion. Had he not missed a large chunk of last season with injury, Leeds might have steered clear of the relegation battle – and Bielsa might even have kept his job.
Leeds did well to secure a successor to Phillips before his move to Manchester City officially went through. Marc Roja will have benefited from a full pre-season under Jesse Marsch as he acclimatises to a new environment, with fellow new boy Tyler Adams set to partner him in the engine room.
Ro ca struggled for game time at Bayern Munich but he showed his quality in La Liga with Espanyol. After Bielsa’s frenetic style, Roca should add what the Spanish call pausa – an ability to put a foot on the ball and dictate the speed of a game.
Attack: 6/10
Raphinha was a rare bright spot in a difficult season for Leeds last time out, scoring 11 goals and providing three assists to help the Yorkshire outfit keep their heads above water.
Given Raphinha has joined a Champions League club in Barcelona and will probably start for Brazil at the upcoming World Cup in Qatar, Leeds’ attack will not be as strong without him. Brenden Aaronson is the man who will be tasked with filling his boots, although the American’s versatility means he can be deployed on either flank or as an attacking midfielder. Quick and energetic, Aaronson looks like a good stylistic fit for Leeds.
Jack Harrison is an underrated player who will continue to be important for the Whites. Patrick Bamford barely featured last season due to injury, and we will have to wait and see if he is able to recapture the form that saw him score 17 Premier League goals in 2020/21. Bamford was brilliant that season, but his previous stints in the top flight with Crystal Palace, Burnley, Norwich City and Middlesbrough were much less successful.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Bench: 5/10
Despite playing an intense and physically demanding style of football throughout his coaching career, Bielsa has always favoured a relatively small squad. That caused problems for Leeds last season. It is unlikely that they will suffer a similarly debilitating injury crisis this time around, but there is still not enough strength in depth for Leeds fans to be confident of keeping clear of the bottom three.
The back-up goalkeeper Kristoffer Klaesson is 21 years old and has only ever played one match in a major European league. Stuart Dallas will miss a large chunk of the season after a femoral fracture, robbing Leeds of a dependable performer who can fill in virtually anywhere on the pitch. Pascal Struijk and Robin Koch are natural centre-backs who can play in midfield if needed, but there are too few natural options in the engine room. Further forward, Rodrigo Moreno has underwhelmed since joining the club from Valencia. Joe Gelhardt is a talented prospect but, at 19 years of age, is not someone Leeds will want to rely on too heavily. Dan James and Tyler Roberts are decent players but are unlikely to strike fear into the hearts of opposition backlines.
Final score: 29/50
This could be another tough season for Leeds, who have lost two of their best players in Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips. The jury is still out on Jesse Marsch despite his success in avoiding relegation last season, and a few injuries in key positions could expose a lack of squad depth. A bottom-three finish is a genuine possibility.
