#12 Brighton: Another Top-Half Finish?
Brighton & Hove Albion are an established Premier League team, so it is easy to lose sight of the fact that last season’s ninth-place finish was the best in the club’s history. The Seagulls went through patches of good and bad form, but a strong end to the campaign saw them climb into ninth place. It was the first time the side from the south coast had finished a top-flight season in the top half of the table.
Any aspirational Championship clubs who want to become part of the Premier League furniture would be advised to study Brighton’s rise. Just over a decade ago, this club was still in League One, rubbing shoulders with Walsall, Notts County and Hartlepool United. They secured promotion to the top tier in 2017 and, under Chris Hughton, successfully avoided relegation two years on the bounce.
Nevertheless, the board decided to part ways with Hughton at the end of the 2018/19 campaign. Some felt this was a puzzling decision. The former Newcastle United boss had fulfilled his remit of taking Brighton into the Premier League and keeping them there. But the powers that be at the Amex Stadium reasoned that a change of style was needed if Brighton were going to take the next step. In came Graham Potter, who introduced an attractive, proactive approach which culminated in last term’s ninth-place finish.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Brighton’s next goal will be qualifying for Europe, although that will not be easy. Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Arsenal are likely to finish in the top six. That would leave just one additional qualification spot in the Premier League. West Ham United claimed it last season, and they, Leicester City, Aston Villa and Newcastle United are among the contenders this time around. Brighton are capable of challenging too, but they will probably fall short.
Predicted XI (3-4-2-1)
Robert Sanchez; Joel Veltman, Lewis Dunk, Adam Webster; Tariq Lamptey, Moises Caicedo, Enock Mwepu, Marc Cucurella; Alexis McAllister, Leandro Trossard; Danny Welbeck.
The coach
When Potter one day leaves Brighton, it may well be to join a member of the Premier League’s big six.
The 47-year-old has not taken the conventional path to this level. His first managerial job was at Ostersund in Sweden, where Potter spent seven years and took the club from the fourth division to the first. After a solitary season at Swansea City, he was appointed by Brighton in 2019.
It is often said that recruitment is the most important activity undertaken by any football club, and Albion have certainly excelled in that area over the last few years. But signing players is just one part of the equation. Getting the best out of them when they arrive is just as significant. That is where Potter excels. He is a fantastic coach who is capable of improving players individually and making the collective more than sum of its parts.
Brighton are one of the best footballing teams in the Premier League. They regularly shift formations, both within and between matches. Players are permitted to interchange positions, but such movements happen within a fixed structure. Brighton play fluid, possession-based football, with pre-rehearsed attacking patterns that have caused problems for even the strongest opponents.
It remains to be seen how long Brighton will be able to keep hold of Potter. The Seagulls are a well-run club and they no doubt have a plan in place for when the incumbent does depart, but chairman Tony Bloom will hope to retain him for as long as possible.
Player to watch
Of all 20 Premier League teams, Brighton appear to have the widest scouting network. In Potter’s tenure alone, Albion have signed players from Pogon Szczecin, Independiente del Valle, Argentinos Junions and Slavia Prague; their squad contains Colombia, Zambia, Poland and Ecuador internationals.
Brighton’s two summer arrivals, Julio Enciso and Kaoru Mitoma, were respectively plucked from Libertad in Paraguay and Kawasaki Frontale in Japan. Mitoma was actually signed 12 months ago but spent last season on loan at Belgian outfit Union SG.
Enock Mwepu is the Zambia international mentioned above. A relatively low-key addition from Red Bull Salzburg before the start of last term, the midfielder only made 18 Premier League appearances in 2021/22 but caught the eye in many of them. With Yves Bissouma having joined Tottenham, Mwepu could become Brighton’s main man in the centre of the park. Dynamic, technically gifted and a skilled ball carrier, the 24-year-old contributes in both the attacking and defensive phases of play.
Transfers
In
Julio Enciso (Libertad)
Out
Jayson Molumby (West Bromwich Albion), Yves Bissouma (Tottenham Hotspur)
Our Premier League score card
Goalkeeper: 7/10
Robert Sanchez usurped Mat Ryan as Brighton’s No.1 in late 2020 and has retained that status in the 18 months since. He has proved to be a better fit than his predecessor for what Potter wants from his goalkeeper. For starters, he is more adept with his feet. Sanchez is comfortable receiving the ball from his defenders, which is essential given Potter’s preference for Brighton to play out from the back.
The Spaniard is a good shot-stopper too. Athletic and agile, he pulled off numerous excellent saves last time out. His decision-making is generally sound, and the fact he is still only 24 years of age – pretty young for a starting Premier League goalkeeper – means he should only get better from here.
Defence: 8/10
Defending is about far more than simply having centre-backs who can tackle and are dominant in the air. Those attributes are important, of course, and even Potter would acknowledge that ball-playing ability is no use if a defender is constantly caught out of position.
But there are many ways a team can minimise the quantity and quality of chances it concedes, and a big part of Brighton’s success in this regard is their possession-based style of play, which aims to keep the ball away from the opposition and therefore limit the amount of opportunities they can create. The statistics from last season demonstrate Brighton’s success in this area: only five clubs – the top four plus Wolverhampton Wanderers – conceded fewer goals than Potter’s men.
Lewis Dunk is a reliable figure at the heart of the backline, with his leadership qualities making him a natural choice as captain. Adam Webster is an underrated passer from deep, and Joel Veltman is comfortable moving out to defend wide areas – an important quality for the outer centre-halves in a back three.
Midfield: 7/10
Yves Bissouma’s move to Tottenham means Brighton have lost arguably the Premier League’s best midfielder outside the big six. The Mali international will be missed, but there is reason to believe the Seagulls will get on fine without him.
Both Moises Caicedo and Enock Mwepu showed flashes of quality last term, but neither was a regular starter. The prospect of a Caicedo-Mwepu partnership in the centre of the park will excite Brighton fans.
We assessed the latter earlier in this article, but the former is worth focusing on too. A busy player who snaps into tackles and covers the ground quickly, Caicedo will probably hold his position in midfield and allow Mwepu to roam forward. The Ecuadorian is also capable of driving forward in possession, though, and he likes to thread passes in between the lines for team-mates positioned higher up the pitch. Meanwhile, Tariq Lamptey and Marc Cucurella are made for the wing-back role. Watching them burst down the flank looking to make something happen in attack is a sight to behold. Cucurella looks set to stay on the south coast despite strong interest from Manchester City.
Attack: 7/10
To win Premier League games, you need to score goals – and Brighton do not do that often enough. They were the joint-fifth lowest-scorers in the division last time out, finding the back of the net with less regularity than several sides who finished below them, including Crystal Palace, Everton, Southampton and Brentford. The year before last, Brighton were the sixth-lowest scorers of the 20 Premier League teams.
Curiously, the problem was not the same in both campaigns. In 2020/21, Brighton’s issue was converting chances. Using expected goals data, we can see that they scored around 12 goals fewer than they ‘should’ have done based on the quality of the opportunities they fashioned. Last year, though, they struggled to create, with their actual goals falling just four short of their expected goals.
Neal Maupay does a lot of good work in terms of pressing and link-up play, but he is not the prolific striker Brighton need. The same can be said for Danny Welbeck, so it will be interesting to see if January signing Deniz Undav gets a chance early in the season. Behind the frontman, Leandro Trossard and Alexis McAllister provide no shortage of invention and guile.
See our predictions for all the teams in the 22/23 Premier League season here.
Bench: 7/10
Brighton’s football is fluid and so is Potter’s approach to team selection. The former Swansea boss is not the type of manager who sticks with the same starting XI week in, week out. He has plenty of options within his squad, and even players who we did not include in our predicted line-up above will be handed plenty of starts. That group includes Shane Duffy in defence, Solly March at wing-back, Adam Lallana, Jakub Moder and Pascal Gross in midfield, and Deniz Undav up front.
Final score: 35/50
Brighton are too good to be involved in a relegation battle. They always play football that is easy on the eye and consistently have a sound defensive record, but Potter’s side must become more efficient in the final third. Unless they can start creating and converting chances with more regularity, they are unlikely to finish in the top seven.
