Champions League Last 16 First Leg Betting Tips – Tuesday 21/2

The Champions League continues tonight with the remaining sides in last 16 first leg action as Manchester City host Monaco and Diego Someone’s Atletico who make the trip to Germany to take on Leverkusen. Leading football journalist Jonathan Wilson casts his eye on the action with top tips to help you make it a winning night pitch side of the Champions League.

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Manchester City v Monaco

There probably isn’t an outstanding side in Europe at the moment, which should be good news for Manchester City. Three league wins in a row, over West Ham, Swansea and Bournemouth, perhaps isn’t the most compelling evidence but since the 4-0 defeat at Everton a month ago there has been a distinct sense at City that the season is, at last, getting into gear again. The return to a 4-3-3 and the decision to bring in Willy Caballero has helped and there is a feeling that the players, finally, are beginning to grasp what Guardiola demands of them. That said, at least some of the improved form was down to the influence of Gabriel Jesus, whose absence with a fractured metatarsal will be sorely felt. Vincent Kompany and Ilkay Gundogan are also out.

Saturday’s 0-0 draw against Huddersfield was a frustration, and means a replay City would probably rather be without.

Monaco have been in exceptional form this season, unbeaten in eight and top of the French league, although they were held to a draw by Bastia on Friday with what was near enough a full-strength side.

The loss of the central midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko to a knee injury is a major blow. Under Leonardo Jardim, Monaco have emerged as a thrillingly attacking side, averaging three goals a game this season in Ligue Un.

Their home record (11 wins and a draw from 13 league games) is exceptional, but they’ve been relatively vulnerable on the road, losing to Nice and Toulouse in the league, to Fenerbahce in a Champions League qualifier and to Bayer Leverkusen in the group stage.

In fact the only European game they’ve won away from home this season was against Tottenham. City’s home record in Europe, by contrast, is good: the only points they dropped were against Celtic after qualification had already been secured.

Given Monaco’s form, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that they’re long at 19/4, assumptions about the mentality of French sides perhaps clouding just how good they are. But at the same time, City tended to be better against teams who attack them. Because Monaco look long there must be a temptation to back them with a goal start at 4/3, but City’s resurgence and their slightly suspect away form in Europe probably tips the balance just towards a City win and more than 2.5 goals in the game at 6/5.

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Leverkusen v Atletico

Atletico have struggled for consistent or fluency this season. They may be unbeaten in eight in the league and have won three in a row, but Saturday’s 4-1 win over Sporting Gijon was far less convincing than the scoreline might suggest, Kevin Gameiro coming off the bench and scoring a hat-trick in five minutes late on. On the other hand, they have impressed in Europe, winning five out of five in the group stage before defeat away to Bayern with progress and top spot in the group already secure.

Bayer Leverkusen won 3-1 away at Augsburg on Saturday, their second successive victory, to ease some of the grumbling around their coach Roger Schmidt, but if it hadn’t been for the Champions League his position might have been under serious threat. Leverkusen were the only side to get through to the last 16 despite not being one of the richest two sides in their group, drawing four games and winning at Wembley against Tottenham.

The sides met at this stage two years ago, Atletico going through on penalties after a pair of 1-0 home wins. Hakan Calhanoglu scored in that tie but the Turkey international will not be available as he serves a four-month suspension for breaching a contract to sign for Trabszonspor when he left Karlsruhe and instead signed for Hamburg.

Jonathan Tah, Admir Mehmedi and Lars Bender are all major injury doubts for Leverkusen. Atletico, meanwhile, will be missing a number of key players. Jan Oblak is back in training after dislocating his shoulder but will probably not be ready, while Tiago, Juanfran, Diego Godin and Augusto Fernandez are all out.

Although Atletico can reasonably be expected to progress from the tie (and are 1/4 to do so) the first leg in Germany may be a different issue. The loss of Oblak and Godin, in particular, removes two of their most significant defensive reference points at the back, their response to which seems to have been to play more cautious football.

They’re unlikely to come out and attack in Leverkusen. In addition, Atletico have own only five of 12 games away from home domestically.

Leverkusen look long to win the leg at 23/10, particularly given they seem to have found a little form. Given the likelihood of a low-scoring game, if you’re backing a home win it seems to make sense to combine that with under-2.5 goals in the game at 24/5.

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